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Winning Sports Advice.com - Don’t ignore the AFP #’s because...

Written by:
Payton
Published on:
Sep/21/2010

Don’t ignore the AFP #’s because…

“You can’t know where you’re going, if you don’t know where you’ve been.”

 

After 3 weeks of 2010 College FB, our exclusive AFP – based on the Pinnacle opening line – gives us our 1st true read on who’s hot and who’s not.

Remember, however, it’s not what you know – it’s how you use it! 

A pair of caveats when using these numbers:  First, if you are following the momentum, make sure the linemaker has not overcompensated and that there is still value.  Secondly, look inside the box scores to determine which of these results have been phony.  Finally, if you believe my conclusions are better than yours, consider using my selections.  My LTS Selections were 5-2 (71%) Saturday with a 5% winner, running 5% CFB picks to 21-7 (75%) L2Y.

For comparison, here is a chart of results thru 9.20.10 to consider:

[# GMS – 206]      [Total AFP - .2353]      [AFP/GM – 11.4 PPG] 

Games decided by: 

[0-7 / 78 (37.8%]       [7 ½-14 / 69 (33.58%)]      [14 ½ - 21 / 29 (14.4%)]      [21 ½+ / 30 (14.6%)]    

Now the List!  To qualify, at this point in the season, teams must be undefeated,  winless ATS and/or be 10 PPG positive or negative.

THE GOOD                                                                   THE BAD

Oregon                3-0          +79         +26.3                  New Mexico             0-3          -70         -23.3  

Florida INT          2-0          +36         +18.0                  Mississippi                   0-3        -63          -21.0

Nevada                2-1          +45         +16.3                 Colorado State           0-3          -50         -16.7

Idaho                    3-0          +48         +16.0                 Arkansas                     0-3          -47        -15.7

Stanford              2-1          +47         +15.7                  New Mex State            0-2          -27        -13.5

Alabama              3-0          +43         +14.3                 Purdue                        0-2          -27        -13.5

Florida ATL          2-0          +28         +14.0                La Tech                      0-3          -38         -12.7

Arizona                 3-0          +39         +13.0                Cincinnati                    0-3          -35        -11.7

Fresno State      2-0          +25         +12.5                    Washington State        1-2          -35       -11.7

San Diego St       3-0          +37         +12.3                BYU                          1-2          -34          -11.3

Air Force              2-1          +33         +11.0                 Mid Tenn St               0-3          -33        -11.0

Boise State         2-0          +22         +11.0                  Wyoming                   1-2          -33          -11.0

Bowling Green  3-0          +33         +11.0                    Duke                          0-3          -31         -10.3

 

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