Scoring on a two-minute drill is Changing the NFL Game

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The final two minutes of the fourth quarter in the 2021 NFL season has fundamentally changed the game.

Over the past two decades, NFL teams scored a little more than 13 percent of the time when getting the ball with less than two minutes left in a one-score game. This season, in the same game scenario, offenses have scored on almost 30 percent of drives, the first success rate above even 18 percent in at least 20 years.


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In 2001, the average amount of yards per drive in the last two minutes of the game was 11.9. In 2021, the average yards per drive (to date) is 22.7. Source: TruMedia 


Although only a quarter into the 2021 season, an outstanding nineteen games in the first five weeks were decided by a game-winning score in the final minute or overtime, the most ever to that point in the season. Four more arrived in Week 6.

With positive results, some teams now seem more apt to try to score late nail-biter tie games rather than playing it safe in overtime.

The question is whether oddsmakers will keep on top of this trend that has been incrementally underway, even before this year's spike. 

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