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Point Spread Betting in the NBA: An Economic Analysis

Written by:
Guest
Published on:
Mar/20/2009

Year after Year, Lines Move drastically at the beginning of the spread and right before game time based on inflated markets. Well that was the theory anyway. After doing some extensive research www.FreeNBAPicks.org has determined most majority line movements occur within an hour after a well followed handicapper has published their big plays of the day. Sure the Beginning of an opening line or right before game time can fluctuate a spread a little, however over 78 percent of the time a line

moves between 2-3 points within the first hour after a major powerhouse handicapper publishes there biggest bets of the day.

Some handicappers have on average over 5,000 active followers with there entire bankroll on there picks, if an average gambler placed only $100 on there preferred handicappers favorites that could cause a huge bankroll lopsided on that particular game. Imagine having $450,000 on side A and $400,000 on side B before their plays where published, Then add $500,000 or more on one side in a very short period of time. That would obviously cause a line to move drastically in a short period of time. Some sportsbooks like Bookmaker.com offer special deals with clients with particular handicappers. These offers vary but it's not uncommon for them to offer you a 3 hour time frame to get the spread before that particular handicapper published there plays. This is yet to be known how successful an operation can profit from allowing such an offer but one would think based on statistical facts. It has been known betting against winning streaks too can be profitable.

With over 75 documented handicappers at FreeNbaPicks.org they see huge spread changes all the time. It's very important to get your action in right after the plays are listed. If not, the line might have moved 2 or 3 points in hand which will give you a less odds value for your bet.  We over at Gambling911 plan on continuing to do more research regarding Spread betting and hopefully to get a more accurate number on how much a handicapper truly moves a line.

For Saturday March 20, there is a full NBA card available and you want to check that out at Bookmaker.com

www.FreeNBAPicks.org is a special contributor to Gambling911.com

 

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