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NBA: Must win equals covers?

Written by:
Payton
Published on:
Mar/30/2009

The Orlando Magic are playing must win games every night but will it translate into covers?

Orlando has won five games in a row but is just 2-3 ATS, and tonight they have a tough test as 2 ½-point favorites at Miami. Game time is 7:30 pm ET.


Orlando (54-18, 46-26 ATS) has the second best record in the East, just ahead of Boston and is a sparkling 25-11 straight-up and ATS on the road. The Magic need every game out as they home court against Boston is necessary if they meet in the second round.

Orlando just completed a sweep of Boston and Milwaukee at home and is 8-1 ATS off two or more home wins this season. The Magic have played like they have had a spell over Miami, winning 11 of the last 12, with a 9-2-1 ATS mark.

With Dwight Howard leading the way, Orlando has horrified the Heat, winning by an average of just over 16 points a game. Their margin of victory would be even greater if they had a clue how to guard Dwyane Wade.

The former Marquette star just lights up Orlando guards. Wade has scored at least 32 points in seven of his last nine games versus the Magic, and in his last six meetings is averaging 37.2 PPG.

Miami (39-34, 34-39 ATS) is in a neck-and-neck race with Philadelphia for the fifth spot in the East and has been unreliable against teams that jack-up the three ball like Orlando. Miami has a 7-18 ATS record versus clubs who attempt 18 or more three-point shots a game on the season.

The Total tonight is 194 points. The Magic are 10-2 ATS on the road when the Total is between 190 and 199.5 points and 18-7 Under off two or more consecutive home wins.

Miami has played some weaker teams recently and their scoring defense has been improved. The Heat is 16-4 ATS after three or more straight Unders and is 34-19 Under as a home underdog.

The Miami players would naturally want to stop the Magic's dominance and are adding a little extra to the festivities, retiring Alonzo Mourning's jersey, making him the first former player so honored by the franchise.


StatFox Power Line - Orlando by 4

For more NBA Odds, please visit Sportsbook.com

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