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Here's another game where the line has moved from -3 (where it opened) all the way down to -1 with Tampa Bay the home favorite.
Action on this game has been 80 percent going Green Bay's way. BetOnline.com had this one at +1 ½ for the Green Bay Packers bettors. Anyone looking at Tampa would be advised to look at those online sports books offering a -1 here. Across the board, half the books offered the line at one or the other number. There were a few PICKs, which allow for either team to win without the bet being considered a push.
Over the last two head-to-head games in this series, the away team had won. Prior to this time it was all about the home team winning, all the way back to 1998. In fact, the Packers are 1-5 lifetime at Raymond James Stadium (ouch!). Granted, it will be their first trip back to Tampa since 2003 and this is one of the youngest teams in the league, so do the math. Green Bay won that game in 2003, lost the previous year in Tampa.
Some important trends to look at: The Packers are 7-0-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a ATS loss. They are also 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 road games. They are 16-6-2 ATS in their last 24 vs. NFC. Green Bay is 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games on grass. Green Bay has won nine of its last 11 road games.
The Bucs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games but 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Part of the Packers' recent success has been their ability to rebound after a loss. The team last sustained back-to-back losses in 2006, when it lost three straight contests (Weeks 11-13).
The Packers only need to win here since the line is Tampa -1 but all the better if you can get them at +1 ½ (see BetUS.com).
Green Bay has played just one game under McCarthy where the temperature was 80 degrees or higher, and this is what we are anticipating come Sunday, though it shouldn't be extreme heat. In 2006 at Miami, the Packers defeated the Dolphins 34-24 at Dolphin Stadium.
Entering Sunday, Rodgers has thrown 148 passes without an interception.
Gambling911.com believes the odds makers have this line right on the money at Tampa Bay Bucs -1 ½.
All things considered, we believe stat trends strongly and the strength of Green Bay strongly favors a win by the Packers. Their streak in bouncing back from a loss is solid.
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Christopher Costigan, Gambling911.com Publisher
