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Free Baseball Pick: San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets

Written by:
Tony George
Published on:
Aug/05/2008
New York Mets

Play: Money Line: -156

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the NY Mets- SD has struggled all season long to score runs. For the season they are batting just 245 and scoring 3.7 RPG and are even worse over the past 7 games hitting 179 and scoring just 2.9 RPG. SD bullpen has done well recently, but they have been terrible in road situations sporting a 5.04 ERA and a 1.548 WHIP in 157 IP on the road.

The Mets are hitting 293 over the past 7 days, but have stranded 53 men on base. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 39-6 making 30.2 units for 87% since 1997. Play against road dogs with a money line of +125 to +175 that is a poor hitting team batting <=.250 and is now facing a decent NL starting pitcher with An ERA=3.70 to 4.20 and also a cold hitting team batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games. Pelfry has been inconsistent over his past several starts alternating strong starts with weak ones.

He is coming off a poor 4 IP 5 ER 8 hit start, but that does not imply he will pitch well tonight. He does his best pitching at Schea posting a 2.25 ERA and a 1.139 WHIP in 11 starts this season. Plus, the AiS shows an 83% probability that he will complete 6+ IP and should that occur the Mets have an 84% probability of winning. SD starter Young is just 1-8 (-10.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Take the Mets.

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