Written by :
Published on :
With the Atlanta Falcons vs. Philadelphia Eagles betting odds, it's quite obvious the odds makers have not caught on to the fact that the Falcons are - drum roll please - 4-2. Many bookmakers did not even have Atlanta winning 4 games this season. Now they head into Philadelphia with the better record (The Eagles are 3-3).
betED.com and a few other online sports books had the Falcons at +9 ½. At best, this line should probably be more around Philadelphia -6 (see the Sagarin Ratings).
Past trends indicate that Philadelphia should be able to win this one...it's just a matter of BY HOW MUCH?
The head-to-head record since 1994 is 8-2 for the home team, though Philadelphia has only gone 6-4 Straight Up and Against The Spread.
Now when we look at recent times, the Eagles have dominated this decade - They've gone 5-1 against the Falcons, beating them by more than the current spread on two of those occasions.
There are a few trends that do not favor Philadelphia.
The Eagles are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games. They are also 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. But this is hardly enough to excite us.
As pointed out by Mike Lipka of Stats.com, Matt Ryan may be a local hero in Philadelphia, where the Atlanta Falcons' rookie quarterback starred in high school on his way to becoming a top-5 pick in this year's NFL draft. But with the last-place Eagles in need of a victory and their blitz-happy defense among the league leaders in sacks, Ryan isn't likely to get a warm welcome in his first professional game in his home state.
Ryan, an Exton, Pa., native and a standout at Penn Charter School in Philadelphia, has thrown four touchdown passes and just one interception in his last four games, leading the Falcons to three wins over that span, including his first NFL road victory at Green Bay on Oct. 5.
Is this a team that should be listed as a +9 ½ underdog?
While it might be enticing for us to pick the Falcons, past history dictates that we do otherwise and simply sit on the sidelines here and see if Atlanta can continue on its very exciting wild carpet ride into the Playoffs.
----
Mary Montgomery, Gambling911.com
