NCAA Elite Eight Betting – Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Baylor Bears

Written by:
Phil Simon
Published on:

The Baylor Bears have shown why they were seeded No. 1 in their bracket. With all the upsets that have taken place so far, this part of the bracket has remained firm with the Bears taking on No. 3 seed Arkansas Razorbacks in an Elite Eight matchup. Baylor was battling with Gonzaga for the top ranking in the national polls all season before a couple of late season losses sealed the deal for the Zags. Baylor can do its part to set up the potential showdown between what most believe are the two best teams in college basketball. The Bears are a 7.5-point favorite on the opening line to advance to the Final Four.  Bookmaker.eu offers a generous welcome bonus (max bonus $1600).

Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Baylor Bears
Date and Time: Monday, March 29, 2021, 9:57 p.m. ET
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Opening College Basketball Odds: Baylor -7.5, O/U 148
Arkansas vs. Baylor TV Coverage: CBS

Odds Analysis

Baylor dominated the second half against Villanova to advance while Arkansas had a tougher time against No. 15 seed Oral Roberts. That explains the slight uptick in the spread, which spiked a half-point after hitting the board at Baylor -7. It continues the trend of having the Bears as the favorite in every game this season. The Bears covered their last two games laying 7.5 points to Nova and 6.5 points to Wisconsin improving to 17-10 overall ATS. They’ve won their three Tournament games by an average of 16 points looking every bit like the No. 1 seed in the region. The Hogs might have a few knocks against them for beating both Texas Tech and ORU by a bucket. But as we all know that doesn’t matter; having more points than the other team when the final horn sounds does. And you can’t look down on them for the magnificent season they’ve had. Arkansas has as many wins as Baylor (25) and has won 12 of its last 13 games going 10-3 ATS over that run.

Arkansas Razorbacks

You have to play 40 minutes and the Razorbacks are good at getting everything out of the allotted time. Even though they are seeded No. 3 the Hogs have felt like an underrated team the entire Tournament. They have shown the ability to adapt to different opponents taking them to 25 victories. They withstood the tough defense of Texas Tech and played their own stellar game in a 68-66 second round win. They also used their size and athletic ability to overcome a 12-point deficit and beat Oral Roberts, 72-70 in their Sweet 16 matchup. “We weren’t playing hard. We were playing slow. We were letting them slow us down and that’s not what we needed. We’re a fast team,” Davonte Davis said of the ORU game.

Davis supplied the game-winning play with a short-range jumper giving his club the lead with 2.9 seconds left. He totaled 16 points and was part of a defensive effort that held ORU to just 2 of 14 three-point shooting in the second half. Davis got plenty of help from his teammates, which is something the Hogs will need on Monday. Jalen Tate scored 22 points, Moses Moody had 14 and Justin Smith had 12 points and 14 rebounds. Arkansas shot just 37.7 percent and was 1 of 9 on three-pointers, numbers that won’t get it done against Baylor.

Baylor Bears

One of the things among several the Bears do well is shoot the three-pointer. When they struggle from behind the arc you might expect a different outcome than their 62-51 win over Villanova in the Sweet 16. That shows us just how good this Baylor team is and why the Bears were fighting for the top spot in the national rankings all season. There were some missteps along the way and a few lengthy COVID inspired delays, but the Bears are rolling. And they overcame a sloppy offensive performance to get past the Wildcats. And they got help from an unlikely source.

Entering the contest as the top three-point shooting team in the country, the Bears hit just 3 of 19 against Villanova. Leading scorer Jared Butler had just nine points and second-leading scorer MaCio Teague tallied five. The two combined average over 32 points per game. The Bears took it inside and trusted their defense. It worked. They shot 53 percent in the second half with only one three-pointer and held Villanova to 21 points. Adam Flagler, who averages 9.0 points, led the team with 16 on 4 of 6 shooting.

Bet Arkansas vs. Baylor at BookMaker.eu

It’s rare for Baylor to have its trio of guards have an off night at the same time. Still, the Bears were able to play defense and connect on 57.5 percent of their two-point shots to subdue Villanova. I don’t anticipate Butler, Teague and Davion Mitchell repeating their performance, and that’s trouble for Arkansas.

NCAA Tournament Prediction: Baylor 81, Arkansas 69

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- Phil Simon, Gambling911.com

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