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Green Bay Packers Prediction 2013: A Brutal Schedule May Prevent Division Win

Written by:
Don Shapiro
Published on:
Aug/18/2013
Green Bay Packers Prediction 2013:  A Brutal Schedule May Prevent Division Win

Gambling911.com has your Green bay Packers prediction for 2013 as we attempt to figure out the outcome of each week’s regular season games. Bookmaker is offering up to $2500 in FREE CASH when you join here today.

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Odds to the Super Bowl (2014) 11/1

Odds to win NFC North -160

Regular Season Wins Total OVER 10.5 -115

Regular Season Wins Total UNDER 10.5 -115

At first glance, the price may be right for a division win even if it is a bit on the steep side.  Sure, any one of the NFC North teams are “on the verge” but nothing suggests they are on the verge of pushing ahead of a Packers team that may have even improved over last year’s squad.  The problem is the schedule, which we will explore more deeply below.

Despite Green Bay capturing a second straight division crown, last season was frustrating for the Packers. They faltered against teams in the NFL’s upper echelon, culminating in a 45-31 playoff loss to San Francisco. This year’s Green Bay team, despite the departures of Jennings and a few key defensive players, appears to be better. Adding a couple legitimate run-game threats will make Rodgers all the more dangerous — a scary thought for defenses, given the precision with which Rodgers has picked secondaries apart in past years. Green Bay remains the team to beat in this division and a definite Super Bowl contender.

Assuming it is true the Packers may be better than last year, it is important to point out that Green Bay has won more than 10 regular season games each year for the past four years. 

The experts at Athlon Sports are only unanimous regarding three likely losses for Green Bay – at San Francisco, Minnesota and the New York Giants.

That said, the experts are more divided with other games but lean more heavily towards the Packers respective opponents in five – games on the road at Baltimore, Dallas and Chicago and home games versus Cincinnati and Pittsburgh.

Five of these six experts still have Green Bay finishing with 11 wins.

Brandon Gill of Athlon Sports writes:

As long as No. 12 is under center, this team will likely be the frontrunner to win the NFC North. However, this team isn't nearly as talented or healthy as the 15-1 team from two years ago. The schedule is nasty with huge NFC tests with almost every other playoff contender as well as the toughest division from the AFC (North). The running game should be better and the front seven should be deeper but with injuries piling up already in the preseason, in particular along the offensive line, this team looks more like a three- or four-seed rather than a first-round bye.

Bill Huber of PackerReport.com expressed concern over the brutal schedule:

This is a challenging schedule but the Packers should be a better all-around team than they were in 2012, when they finished 11-5. In their first five games, the Packers face four playoff teams — including both Super Bowl participants. In fact, there really isn't a soft spot on the schedule. Of the 16 games, only Cleveland failed to post at least a .500 record in either 2011 or '12, and 11 of the 16 games will be against teams that reached the playoffs in one of those two seasons — a list that doesn’t include two matchups against Chicago, which won 10 games last year. An improved running game should lend to a better passing game, as well, thanks to better protection and the return of play action. A defense that finished fourth in sacks last season used a first-round pick on Datone Jones and will benefit from the return of last year’s first-round pick, Nick Perry, who missed the final 10 games. Over the last four seasons, the Packers have 17 more interceptions than any team in the league, so an improved pass rush should only accentuate that strength.

With an improved running game and Green Bay’s four consecutive winning seasons above the number 10, this is a Packers team that should be able to overcome the tough schedule and go OVER 10.5 regular season wins.  That said, the -160 price to win the NFC North when looking at this year’s schedule gives us reason to pause when it comes to the division future bet.


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- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com

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