Free NFL Picks Week 1 Preseason 2014
Tony George of TonyGeorgeSports.com has your free NFL picks for Week 1 of the 2014 presseason.
The NFL likes to make TV ratings and the entertainment value high, even in the Pre Season. Some of the Week1 preseason matchups clearly spell that out. While NY downed Buffalo in a sloppy Hall of Fame Game, where most sharps can clearly see there is little value in Week 1 without an insiders guide to what coaches are thinking ahead of time, (Tom Couglin leaving Eli Manning and 1st team offense in against Buffalo’s second teamers to score a TD), none the less there is some interesting storylines in Week 1 starting out on Thursday. There is some value on a few games, but for the most part from my perspective it is better to wait till week 2 and 3 as some “spot scenario” handicapping will be avaliable depending on the lines for a few games.
No doubt week 1 in the NFLX is one to tread lightly in, and that is the best free tip you should take of note from me this weekend. The best opportunity for profit outside of any insight into a coaches plan which is rarely made public in weeks 1 and 2 other some certain scenarios that pop up, is week 3 which usually is a 2 to 3 quarter dress rehearshal for the starters. Here are my reads on Week 1 on a few games.
Seattle @ Denver (Pick em) Total 37
Last years Super Bowl Blowout re-visited, Peyton Manning versus a defense that shred him to bits last year. The problem is he gets 1 series, maybe two to exact revenge with a fairly vanilla playbook for week 1. The story here is MOTIVATION on Denver’s part, no matter what unit is in, because they were embarrassed in the Super Bowl last year and there is no doubt a win here is a moral victory. This Denver at home should be a favorite but this is a pickem game which scares me as oddsmakers are not baiting you to lay 2 or 3 with Denver as you would think.. If you see Manning and company more than 2 series I would be in shock, and although it is going to be sloppy, as all week 1 games are, Denvers QB’s 3 deep have looked great in camp and no doubt Coach Carrol will be gunning for a win as always. Might be some scoring in this one in what should be a good match-up so the total of over 37 might be worth a small sniff. I would lean Denver.
49ers @ Ravens (Pick em) Total 35
The Super Bowl 2 years ago and the brothers Haurbaugh here. Talk about drama and two coaches who clearly want to beat each other, even in the preseason. That sets up for some scoring and the total of 35 going over looks alittle tasty. Two things at play here in my mind, and the first one is the travel required for San Fran, which has an affect on a team this early. Also John Harbaugfh likes to win in the 1st week of the preseason, he has a 5-1 straight up record in week 1, while little brother Jim is 1-2 in week 1 in his 3 years. It should be noted Jim Hatbaugh has a 6-2 SU record in the preseason as a head coach in his last 2 preseasons. Lean again to the home team here.
Patriots @ Redskins (-1.5) Toatl 38
A veteran coach versus a new head coach. I prefer vetran head coaches in the NFL in the preseason to prevail in week 1. First year head coaches tend not to fare well in Week 1 , and we all know Bill Bilichick’s teams do very well out of the gate, he is 11-4 SU in week 1 of the preseason as a head coach. I think 3 deep Washington is better at QB, but with lack of depth on defense and an all new coaching staff, the value in this one lies with the visitor who is an underdog and their offensive scheme is more finely tuned at this point. Lean to New England
Cleveland @ Detroit (-2.5) Total 38
Here we go, the Johnny Football debut, and this may grab the highest ratings of the weekend and perhaps the week. That said do you really expect him to dominate the landscape against the reserves from Detroit? There is a QB battle in Cleveland that is well documented by all sports media, but at days end there are two good defenses here that are fairly deep, and an all new coaching staff for both teams, so what they do is totally unpredictable, but in my opinion past the first teams on offense, the game will be ruled by defense and I lean to the under.
Tony George, Gambling911.com
