April 6 Major League Baseball Trends and Betting Previews - Early Games (Podcast)

Written by:
Don Shapiro
Published on:

Today we will talk some good trends in Major League Baseball for the afternoon games and if they're worth backing.



Mariners vs. White Sox

Trend Edge: Mariners

Seattle came into Friday's game 7-1 on the season thus far, and have dropped to 7-2 following a win by the White Sox.

They have won seven of the last ten head-to-heads versus the White Sox.

We stayed away from this one Friday, fearing the White Sox could have better pitching.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Mariners RH Mike Leake (1-0, 3.00 ERA) vs. White Sox RH Lucas Giolito (1-0, 2.70)

Leake yielded two runs, seven hits and two walks while striking out seven over six innings of a 6-5 victory over Boston on March 30. The 31-year-old Californian shrugged off a tough spring training in which he allowed 14 runs (11 earned) and five homers across 18 2/3 innings. Leake lost his only start against Chicago, allowing eight runs and 12 hits in 3 1/3 innings of a 10-4 loss last season in which Moncada lit him up with a double, triple and home run.

Giolito, who didn't allow a hit for 6 1/3 innings before Alex Gordon singled, wound up allowing two runs and three hits while striking out eight over 6 2/3 frames. "It feels good to start off on a good note," the 24-year-old Californian told reporters. "Throughout my whole career, I've always had my not as good starts earlier in the year, and I wanted to change that this year." Giolito improved to 1-0 with a 3.55 ERA in two career March starts but is 1-3, 8.69 in four April turns.

The line hasn't moved.  We'll stay away from this one.

Padres vs. Cardinals

Trend Edge: Under

Seven of the last nine games in this series had gone UNDER the current number of 7.5 prior to Friday's meeting.  

Heading into Saturday, 7 of the last 10 in this series have gone UNDER. 

We stayed off this one due to the Cardinals having gone 1-6 in Flaherty's last 7 starts, and that record now moves to 1-7.

Ultimately we were right to stay on the sidelines here as this one landed a half run above the total (8).

PITCHING MATCHUP: Padres RH Chris Paddack (0-0, 1.80 ERA) vs. Cardinals RH Michael Wacha (0-0, 1.50)

The much-heralded Paddack put forth a very sharp debut in the majors Sunday against San Francisco, limiting the Giants to one run and two hits while striking out seven in five innings. Including his dominant spring training, he has 31 strikeouts and four walks over 20 1/3 innings in 2019. The Texas native was 13-6 with a 1.82 ERA in 37 games in the minors over four seasons.

Coming off a solid but injury-marred 2018, Wacha opened the season with six solid innings in a no-decision at Milwaukee. He struck out seven and allowed one run in the contest and has sustained just one loss in his last 15 starts dating to last year. Included in that stretch is a six-inning, one-run effort at San Diego last May, which left the 27-year-old Wacha at 3-0 with 2.32 ERA in five career starts versus the Padres.

This one was just sitting at 7.5 after opening at 8, so it is deserving of a look.

We generally like a situation where two decent starting pitchers are coming off of a no-decision or loss their last start.

The Cardinals are 7-2 in Wacha's last 9 home starts.

The UNDER is 7-3-1 in Wacha’s last 11 starts overall.

San Diego started the season with four of five games resulted in the Padres only scoring three or fewer runs (the fifth of those games had 4 runs scored).  The

The Padres are 4-1 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.

We are giving the UNDER a 55% chance for now but that's not enough to make this an official pick.  We'll be watching to see if the total comes down to 7 anywhere.  If so, that's an indication that books feel more confident of an UNDER.  We will likely still be able to get the 7.5 somewhere still.

Rangers vs. Angels

Trend Edge: Angels

Angels have won six of the last seven in this series.

65% of those betting this game were backing LA with a line move of -121 to -150.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Rangers LH Drew Smyly (0-0, 3.00 ERA) vs. Angels LH Tyler Skaggs (0-1, 3.86)

Smyly made his first start since 2016 on Monday, when he gave up one run and four hits in three innings against Houston Astros. The 29-year-old underwent Tommy John surgery midway through the 2017 season and didn't pitch in the majors the past two years. Smyly is 0-3 with a 4.91 ERA in six career appearances (four starts) against the Angels.

Skaggs lost his first outing as he gave up two runs and five hits over 4 2/3 innings against Oakland. The 27-year-old made a career-high 24 starts last season, when he went 8-10 with a 4.02 ERA. Skaggs is 4-2 with a 5.25 ERA in 10 career starts versus the Rangers but shut down Rougned Odor (0-for-14) and Gallo (1-for-8, one homer).

The line move favors LA but that's with 65% of the action on the Angels.  Not quite ready to back this team just yet.

2019 MLB Record: 3-0 (100%)

2018-19 College Basketball Record: 12-9 (57.1%)

2018-19 NBA Record: 6-3 (66.6%)

2018 MLB Record: 45-35 (56.2%)

2018 NBA Record: 12-4-1 (75%)

- Don Shapiro, Gambling911.com

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