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Should I Bet the UCF Knights in College Football This Week?

Written by:
Tyrone Black
Published on:
Oct/05/2022

The UCF Knights are still a decent football team in 2022 despite a rare home loss to Louisville on September 9.  This game will be played Wednesday night due to rescheduling around Hurricane Ian.

There is a good reason to try again betting UCF on the moneyline against SMU.  The price is just -140.

It's not as if this is an invincible Mustangs squad.  They come into UCF with a 2-2 record having lost their last two games.

Sure Southern Methodist will be hungry for a win but here is the kicker: Prior to that home loss versus the Cardinals in Week 2, the Knights only lost once at home as a favorite since 2017.

We also detect a pretty significant underlay here as UCF is favored at -2.5, down from -3.5 and we get a number of 6.32 for a 3 to 4 underlay.

Comparables include a prior SMU game.  SMU +3.5 to +2.5 Maryland with the favorites, the Terps, covering the spread and an underlay of between 1 to 2 points.

We also had a favorite win in this line range (moving above and below the number 3) with a more significant underlay. Penn State -3.5 to -2.5 Auburn had the favorite Penn State walk away with a huge cover.  This one featured an underlay of 9 to 10.

UCF Schedule

Schedule

Sept 1 South Carolina State

Sept 9 Louisville

Sept 17 at Florida Atlantic

Sept 24 Georgia Tech

Oct 1 SMU

Oct 8 OPEN DATE

Oct 13 Temple

Oct 22 at East Carolina

Oct 29 Cincinnati

Nov 5 at Memphis

Nov 12 at Tulane

Nov 19 Navy

Nov 26 at USF

Resources

Is MyBookie Legal in Florida?

UCF @ FAU

UCF was between a -9.5 and -7.5 favorite against Florida Atlantic on September 17.  The Knights won big and easily covered the spread. This one featured an underlay of 3 points.

- Tyrone Black, Gamlbing911.com

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