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These are today's biggest stories and betting markets shaping the prediction market industry Tuesday July 28, 2026.
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Fed Decision in July 2026?
Tuesday July 28, 2026 (8:22 am EDT)
Even with just a few days remaining in the month of July, the fed rate remaining the same was just a 74% chance, meaning a quarter of those trading at prediction markets still think there could be a change come week's end. $48 million has been traded thus far at Kalshi. The Federal Open Market Committee convenes July 28–29, 2026, for its fifth scheduled meeting of the year, with the rate decision set for release at 2:00 PM ET on July 29, according to the Federal Reserve. The committee has held the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% through multiple consecutive 2026 meetings, and this session carries no updated dot plot or Summary of Economic Projections.
Trump Admin's Proposed Prediction Market Rule Faces Public Pushback
Tuesday July 28, 2026 (8:13 am EDT)
Lawmakers, Native American tribes, consumer advocates and others are voicing strong opposition to the Trump administration's plans to regulate sports and other wagering in the booming prediction market industry, according to a review of public comments available on Monday. The comments representing a spectrum of views are in response to last month's proposal from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission that would set moral boundaries for some prediction markets – which allow users to place yes/no wagers on such things as sports, elections, economic outcomes and Wall Street indices, among other events. The CFTC is proposing to limit certain types of bets on a set of activities identified in the law, including crime, terrorism, assassination, war or "gaming," saying some of these may fall outside of the "public interest," while generally allowing sports wagering on platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket to continue.
Federal Judge Halts Minnesota Law Meant to Bar Prediction Markets Within State
Tuesday July 28, 2026 (8:13 am EDT)
A federal judge on Monday blocked Minnesota from banning prediction market trades within the state. The ruling comes just days before Minnesota’s first-of-its-kind law was to take effect as both KalshiEX and Polymarket fought to prevent the ban. Judge Katherine Menendez determined that the federal regulatory agency and the prediction market companies proved they were likely to prevail at least in part in their lawsuit. The judge said because “they face a threat of irreparable harm,” she would prevent enforcement of the law while the case plays out. “Kalshi and Polymarket US are designated contract markets, so the CFTC has exclusive jurisdiction to regulate transactions involving those `swaps,’” Menendez wrote in her 44-page ruling. Menendez said in her order that it is possible that some event contracts offered on the site could still be subject to challenge and the injunction could eventually be narrowed.
tastytrade Launches Prediction Markets, Giving Active Traders a Direct Way to Trade Real-World Market Events
Tuesday July 28, 2026 (8:13 am EDT)
tastytrade, the online brokerage firm created by traders for self-directed investors, today launched Prediction Markets, putting CFTC-regulated event contracts on the catalysts active traders already watch—Fed decisions, inflation and jobs prints, the VIX, crude, and crypto—directly inside the platform they already trade. Powered by Apex Fintech Solutions and available 24/7, it turns a view on the number, the decision, or the result into a single, defined-risk trade that settles right next to stocks, options, and futures. tastytrade is the first brokerage to launch on Apex’s turnkey FCM infrastructure. tastytrade Prediction Markets launches with a catalog built around the catalysts active traders monitor such as major equity indices; Treasury yields; the VIX, and the U.S. dollar; Fed, ECB, BoE, and BoJ rate decisions; headline inflation, jobs, and growth prints (CPI, PCE, nonfarm payrolls, GDP, ISM); leading crypto including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP; and the most-traded energy and metals products like crude, natural gas, gold, silver, and copper. Contracts trade across timeframes from hourly to yearly, giving traders the flexibility to take a position when it matters most. “Customer demand for simple, directional trades is accelerating, and we built Prediction Markets for the way active traders already think. We focused it on the catalysts our customers already trade: the Fed, the inflation print, the VIX, crude, crypto,” said Pete Mulmat, Head of Brokerage, tastytrade/IGNA. “Most markets make you trade around the outcome and wait for the news to get interpreted. This flips it. If you have a view on the number, the decision, or the result, you trade the event, not the reaction, with defined risk, a clear payoff, no complex strategies, and 24/7 access including the evenings and weekends when traditional markets are closed.”
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- Aaron Goldstein, Gambling911.com
