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Odds to win the coveted Virginia state Republican Primary for Super Tuesday had real estate magnate Donald Trump coming in at 33-1 odds.
Polling done last week appeared to have Trump up between 10 and 20 percent over his rivals.
Florida Senator Marco Rubio was at 15-2 odds, Texas Senator Ted Cruz was at 12-1 odds.
Rubio has a slim shot of winning the state, Cruz does not.
Polling done last week appeared to have Trump up between 10 and 20 percent over his rivals.
Florida Senator Marco Rubio was at 15-2 odds, Texas Senator Ted Cruz was at 12-1 odds.
Rubio has a slim shot of winning the state, Cruz does not.
The New York Times offered up this assessment of the Virginia Primary:
Virginia is another highly educated state, but hard to predict.
On the one hand, Northern Virginia is one of the most well-educated parts of the country. On the other, rural western and central Virginia could be a big problem for Mr. Rubio. Who can win which area by more could easily decide the contest.
The big battleground is the central and southeastern part of the state. In South Carolina, Mr. Rubio squeaked out wins in Columbia and Charleston, so he might do something similar in Richmond and parts of the urban Tidewater region, like Norfolk or Virginia Beach.
On balance, our estimates suggest Mr. Trump’s strength among rural and small-town voters in central and western Virginia will give him an edge over Mr. Rubio’s strength in Northern Virginia. The polls also happen to show the same thing. In fact, none of the polls show a race as close as this model.
One possibility is that Mr. Trump is going to fare even better in western Virginia than the estimate assumes. We don’t yet have a good sense of just how good Appalachia will be for Mr. Trump, but no one should be surprised if he does extremely well. If so, Mr. Rubio might have a better chance in a state like Georgia, where Appalachia represents a smaller share of the Republican electorate.
What’s clear is that Mr. Rubio sees it as his best shot at a win in a primary state. He spent the whole day there on Sunday.
While Virginia voters do not have to register as either a Republican or Democrat, they will need to declare their affiliation once at the polling sites on Tuesday in order to obtain the proper forms.
Registered voters in Virginia may vote in either primary (but not both), meaning the state's Super Tuesday nominating contests could serve as a proxy for the November general election.
- Gilbert Horowitz, Gambling911.com
