US x Iran Diplomatic Meeting By June 30 Prediction Market Sees Nearly 70 Percent Chance

Written by :

t c jackson

Published on :

6 May, 2026

U.S. President Donald Trump once again issues warning to Iran
Prediction markets see more cooler heads prevail by June's end

U.S. President Donald Trump has said the US will start bombing Iran “at a much higher level and intensity” than before the ceasefire if Iran does not agree on a deal.

The threat comes hours after Trump paused the US military’s “Project Freedom” operation to open the Strait of Hormuz, due to “great progress” being made towards a “complete and final agreement with the representatives of Iran”. Trump said the operation will be paused for “a short period” to see if an agreement with Tehran can be finalised.

Prediction markets were more bullish on a U.S. and Iran diplomatic meeting taking place by June 30, with some $519,000 in trading volume at Polymarket and a 68% chance of this occurring.

Over $2 million in trading volume has been placed on this occurring by May 15 with just a 21% chance while traders are split over a meeting by month's end.

A Pakistani source involved in peace efforts has been quoted by Reuters as saying the US and Iran are closing in on a one-page memo to end the war, confirming an earlier report by Axios.

How This Market Will Resolve

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.

Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.

The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.

The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.