Trump Hush Money Verdict Guilty Up to 80 Percent Chance at Polymarket

Written by:
Jagajeet Chiba
Published on:

A verdict in the Manhattan hush money trial of former U.S. President Donald Trump is expected at any time but the gambling public already seems to know what that verdict will be: Guilty.


Well, that's what nearly 80% (79% to be exact) are backing.

Some $114,000 has been bet thus far at Polymarket.

If found guilty, Trump would become the first ever U.S. president convicted of a crime.

Trump faces 34 felony charges of falsifying business records with the intent to commit or conceal another crime relating to payments made to pornographic film actress Stormy Daniels to ensure her silence about an alleged sexual encounter between them. The Manhattan District Attorney (DA) accused Trump of falsifying these business records with the intent to violate federal campaign finance limits, unlawfully influence the 2016 U.S. presidential election, and commit tax fraud. The charges carry a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison if Trump is convicted on five or more counts.

Polymarket does not accept bets originating from the U.S.   Our friends at BetOnline have plenty of Trump prop bets here.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is found guilty of "falsifying business records in the first degree in violation of Penal Law §175.10” in the case of The People of the State of New York v. Donald J. Trump by November 5, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Donald Trump’s case is dismissed, or ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, this market will resolve to "No". If there is a mistrial, this market will stay open to consider further retrials - if by election day Trump has not yet been found guilty or has not entered a guilty plea, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.


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