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The race for Texas’s Senate seat in 2026 has quickly become one of the most closely watched in the country now that progressive Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett announced her candidacy.
Crockett now joins state Representative James Talarico in the Democratic primary. The Republican field is led by Senator John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Crockett, 44, has cultivated a significant online following and a strong fundraising network, largely through her high-profile critiques of former President Donald Trump. However, many senior Democrats are skeptical that her profile would carry a statewide general election.
Her primary opponent, the 36-year-old Talarico, is a former minister who often incorporates Biblical references in his criticisms of Trump and the far right. He has also reached a broad audience through appearances on podcasts like The Joe Rogan Experience.
BetOnline.ag set Senate primary odds for Texas on November 12, and on that date, Talarico was a -165 favorite to represent the Democrats. Crockett opened with +500 (5/1) odds.
Additionally, Paxton was a +115 favorite at that time (Cornyn a close second at +130), but he's widened the gap in the latest odds.
Finally, the Dems have closed the gap in terms of which party will win the 2026 Senate Election. On Nov. 12, they were listed at +600 (6/1) while the GOP was a -900 favorite. Take a look at the numbers below to see how the sentiment has shifted.
Here are the latest odds in the Senate race everyone will be watching over the next 11 months:
Texas - Democratic Primary Odds
Jasmine Crockett -150
James Talarico +110
Beto O'Rourke +5000
Emily Mogul +5000
Texas - Republican Primary Odds
Ken Paxton -185
John Cornyn +175
Wesley Hunt +725
Texas Senate Election 2026
Republican Victor -350
Democratic Victor +225
- BetOnline Press
