Talarico vs. GOP Betting Odds: First Democrat to be Favored to Win in Decades

Written by :

Press Release

Published on :

4 March, 2026

James Talarico is slightly favored to become the first Democratic senator in the state of Texas since 1994.

Following his 7% victory over Jasmine Crockett (the margin carried 8/1 odds so the gap was largely unexpected), Talarico is now a small favorite against either John Cornyn or Ken Paxton in the November midterm election.

Odds at BetOnline.ag also show that Cornyn is favored to beat Paxton in the May runoff, likely bolstered by an endorsement from President Donald Trump (odds favor that happening as well, if he even endorses either candidate).

If Texas flips to blue, the Senate control race gets really interesting. The odds still currently favor the Republicans, but they are much tighter than they were a year ago.

Will President Trump endorse a GOP Senate candidate?

Yes +100

No +140

Which candidate will President Trump endorse?

John Cornyn -140

Ken Paxton +100

Texas Senate Midterm Election

James Talarico -120

Any Republican -110

Party to Control Senate After Midterms

Republicans -130

Democrats +100