Ron Paul Midway Within the Pack: Donald Trump Drops F Bomb and More (Odds)

A recent Fox News poll has Texas Congressman and ally to the online gambling sector midway among the pack of hopeful Republican nominees for the 2012 US Presidency.  Paul made his decision this past week to form a Presidential exploratory committee.

So how do the poll numbers stack up with prediction market odds found at intrade.com?

Mitt Romney 17 percent (24.5 percent at intrade.com)

Mike Huckabee 17 percent (8.3 percent at intrade.com)

Sarah Palin 9 percent (5 percent at intrade.com)

Donald Trump 8 percent (6 percent at intrade.com)

Ron Paul 7 percent (2.9 percent at intrade.com)

Newt Gingrich 7 percent (2.7 percent at intrade.com)

Herman Cain 4 percent (0.2 percent at intrade.com)

Rick Santorum 3 percent (0.6 percent at intrade.com)

Michele Bachmann 3 percent (6.3 percent at intrade.com)

Tim Pawlenty – 3 percent (16.2 percent at intrade.com)

As you can see, there is quite a variance between the polls and initial betting activity.  We should note that the betting action is not as current since early volume is incorporated into the most recent percentages.  Also, there is nominal wagering activity at this point in time.

….It remains to be seen how “The Donald’s” recent birther brouhaha and expletive-filled speech at a Republican women’s reception will translate in poll and betting numbers.

Trump dropped the F bomb a few times while incorporating some other colorful language while speaking at the event held in Las Vegas.

"I'll think about it," Trump said when an audience member asked him to run. "You probably won't be disappointed."

Trump, who has said he will decide by June whether to run for president, also criticized the price of oil in his remarks, one of the mantras adopted by the reality TV star of late.

"They (OPEC) want to go in and raise the price of oil because we have nobody in Washington that sits back and says you're not going to raise that f-ing price, you understand me?" Trump said.

And he had this to say about the war in Iraq:

"We build a school, we build a road. They blow up the road. They blow up the school. We build another school, we build another road, they blow them up," Trump said. "We build again, in the meantime we can't get a f-king school built in Brooklyn."

- Aaron Goldstein, Gambling911.com

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