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There is a war in the Middle East and the price of gas is widely expected to skyrocket.
As of March 2, 2026, the U.S. national average price for regular unleaded gasoline in the U.S. is approximately $2.997 per gallon, according to AAA. Prices have seen slight increases recently, even prior to the US-Israeli air strikes on Iran that began Saturday. The national average rising roughly 2% from a week ago.
Those at the prediction market site Kalshi overwhelmingly believe the average price of gas will be at $3.20 by week's end in the U.S.
Close to 100% of traders believe the price of gas on average will be above $3.00 by week's end.
If average regular gas prices for United States are strictly greater than $3.20 on Mar 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from AAA. Note: this event is directional.
The price of oil surged Monday as President Donald Trump signaled that the conflict between the U.S., Israel and Iran would potentially be drawn out for longer than a few weeks.
"Whatever the time is, it's OK," Trump said. "Right from the beginning, we projected four to five weeks, but we have capability to go far longer than that. We'll do it."
U.S. crude oil soared more than 6.5%, while Brent, the international oil benchmark, surged 7%. For U.S. crude oil, the move pushed prices higher by nearly $5 per barrel.
Retail gas prices move about 2.5 cents for every $1 move in the price of crude oil,
- T.C. Jackson, Gambling911.com
