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A dramatic military operation leading to the ouster and capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro from power during the early morning hours on Sunday is not being considered an "invasion" by Polymarket.
To date, $10 million has been traded thus far on the Venezuela invasion betting market at the prediction market platform.
Some traders are furious that they have been unable to cash out.
"Then what the f*** would be an invasion?" asked one anonymous angry user on the Polymarket site.
Polymarket rules, which have been updated since January 3, 2026, specify the following:
This market refers to U.S. military operations intended to establish control. President Trump’s statement that they will “run” Venezuela while referencing ongoing talks with the Venezuelan government does not alone qualify the snatch-and-extract mission to capture Maduro as an invasion.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
This latest controversy comes days after it was revealed that a mysterious online gambler made $400,000 betting on the removal of Maduro just hours before the US mission in Venezuela.
President Donald Trump's son, Donald Trump, Jr, has close ties to Polymarket. His investment firm bought as stake in the company last year.
- Gilbert Horowitz, Gambling911.com
