November 4, 2025 Referendum Betting Odds for California, Texas, Maine, New York
On November 4, voters in six states will decide 24 statewide ballot measures, with several pivotal proposals targeting election and voting policies.
Key measures include California's Proposition 50, which would adopt a new, legislature-drawn congressional district map for the latter half of the decade.
In Texas, Proposition 16 seeks to constitutionally ban non-citizens from voting, a policy already in state law, but one that would require greater legislative consensus and voter approval to ever amend.
BetOnline.ag has set yes/no odds for five November 4 referenda, including the two aforementioned ones in California and Texas.
Also, on the betting board are measures for Maine and New York, which you can find below.
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Will Proposition 50 on California ballot pass? (Legislature-drawn congressional district map for 2026-2030)
Yes -225
No +160
(Note: Odds equate to a 69.2% implied probability measure will pass)
Will Question 2 on Maine ballot pass? (Restrict a person’s access to dangerous weapons, ERPO)
Yes +135
No -175
(Note: Odds equate to a 42.6% implied probability measure will pass)
Will Proposal 1 on New York ballot pass? (Allow park forest preserve acres for ski sports)
Yes -4000
No +1000
(Note: Odds equate to a 97.6% implied probability measure will pass)
Will Proposition 16 on Texas ballot pass? (Non-citizens voting rights)
Yes -5000
No +1200
(Note: Odds equate to a 98% implied probability measure will pass)
Will Proposition 2 on Texas ballot pass? (No capital gains tax)
Yes -1500
No +600
(Note: Odds equate to a 93.8% implied probability measure will pass)
- BetOnline Press
