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Last week’s round of elections produced a series of resounding victories for the Democrats, winning by considerably larger margins than anticipated. In turn, there have been major movements across the odds board for BetOnline’s long-term politics markets.
First, they were already favorites to win back the House, and these results clearly demonstrated they are enjoying a similar ‘enthusiasm spike’ as we saw during the first Trump term.
A Democrat victory in the House now has -275 odds, up from -180 before the November 4 Election Day.
However, Congress is still forecast to be split, given the difficulty of the Senate map for Democrats. While their odds to win have shortened, Republicans remain firm favorites at -325 for the Senate.
The odds of a Democrat House/Republican Senate split is a pick ‘em at -115 each way.
Regarding 2028, the big win for Prop 50 does not just enhance their House prospects, but very much boosted Governor Gavin Newsom’s credentials as their leader-in-waiting. He is now down to just +375 to win the presidential election and +145 for the Democrat nomination.
And what of his closest rival in the betting? Zohran Mamdani’s win in New York may herald the emergence of a new, more progressive Democratic leadership, with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at the forefront.
AOC remains the second-favorite behind Newsom for the Democrat nomination, but, equally, her chance of ousting Chuck Schumer as New York Senator looks stronger than ever. Of course, she hasn’t committed to either target yet.
BetOnline.ag is offering +120 odds that AOC even runs for the presidency, and -135 that Schumer fails to be re-elected in New York (regardless of who primaries him or the general).
2026 Midterm Election
House of Representatives
Democrats -275 (was -180 before Nov. 4)
Republicans +215
Senate
Republicans -325 (was -450 before Nov. 4)
Democrats +215
Balance
Dem House/GOP Senate -115
Both Republican +225
Both Democrat +240
2028 Presidential Election
U.S. President Elect
Vance +250 (was +225 before Nov. 4)
Newsom +375 (was +475 before Nov. 4)
Ocasio-Cortez +1100 (no change)
Trump sr. +1200 (was +1100 before Nov. 4)
Rubio +1600
Pritzker +1800
Shapiro +2000
Field (Any other candidate) +2500
Democratic Nominee
Newsom +145 (was +185 before Nov. 4)
Ocasio-Cortez +550
Shapiro +1000
Pritzker +1100
Field (Any other candidate) +1600
Will Schumer be re-elected as New York Senator?
Yes -105
No -135 (was -105 before Nov. 4)
- BetOnline Press
