New US-Iran Nuclear Deal This Year Betting Odds

A sixth round of US-Iran nuclear talks were slate for Sunday in Oman in regard to Tehran's rapidly expanding nuclear program, but that was prior to Israel's Friday morning attack on Iran.

By Saturday, the obvious was confirmed by Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi.  The talks have been canceled, at least for now.

Washington remained committed to the negotiations and hoped "the Iranians will come to the table soon," a senior official to US President Donald Trump told Reuters.

Israel unleashed airstrikes across Iran for a third day Sunday and threatened even greater force as some Iranian missiles evaded Israeli air defenses to strike buildings in the heart of the country.  A human rights group has claimed that some 406 people have died in Iran since Friday.

The gambling public were not optimistic of new nuclear talks with just 34 percent believing they will resume by year's end at Kalshi and

Just 13 percent at Polymarket believed new talks would take place prior to July 31. Thus far, $1.8 million has been wagered on this market at Polymarket.

Kalshi's US-Iran Nuclear Talks Betting Market Rules:

If the United States agreed to, signed, or accepted "A new Iran-US nuclear deal" means a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both the United States and Iran that (1) imposes verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, including limits on uranium enrichment, centrifuge numbers, or nuclear facility operations, AND (2) provides for the lifting, suspension, or modification of at least one US economic sanction on Iran in exchange for Iran's nuclear commitments. before Jan 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Sources from The New York Times, the Associated Press, Reuters, Axios, Politico, Semafor, The Information, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, and MSNBC.