Michele Bachmann Near 15 Percent Chance of Winning Republican Nomination

Written by:
Aaron Goldstein
Published on:
Michele Bachmann

Michele Bachmann has managed to more than double her chances of winning the GOP nomination for the 2012 US Presidential election. 

Just a month ago she stood at 7 percent chance among the intrade.com prediction market bettors.  By July 15 she comes in at close to 15 percent.

Polls show she is leading in Iowa and dangerously close to snatching the lead from frontrunner Mitt Romney in New Hampshire. 

Bachman, once seen as a fluke (or kook depending on who you ask), managed to raise an impressive $4 million in the second quarter. 

Even the Liberal leaning Huffington Post declared this week that “Michele Bachman may just be for real”.

Michael J.W. Stickings writes of Bachmann:

To some of us, this isn't at all surprising. I have long thought that Bachmann has impressive political skills (whatever her right-wing craziness) and could do well in this race, particularly in the absence of another viable candidate on the right. And she's doing well generally in a one-on-one race against Romney, a race without, say, a Perry or a Palin to drain some of her conservative support.

Romney is still the frontrunner and perhaps the favorite. He has a solid ground campaign across the country, will win New Hampshire, has the support of much of the establishment (and monied interests that back the GOP), and is a solid if uninspiring candidate, particularly with the economy at the center of the debate.

But Bachmann could easily win Iowa, surprise with a strong showing in New Hampshire, and then, should she be more or less alone on the right, cruise into South Carolina with the wind at her back.


Everyone at Intrade.com continues to sympathize with the family and friends of our founder, John Delaney, who passed away striving for his dream of summiting Mt. Everest. In keeping with John's ambitions for Intrade, we look forward to continuing the growth of our trading volumes with our recently introduced zero trading and expiry fee structure. Members can now trade unlimited volumes at no extra cost on the world's leading prediction market. Intrade also announces the appointment of Dan Laffan as interim CEO.

- Aaron Goldstein, Gambling911.com

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