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On Thursday, Britain is set for its most consequential by-election (special election) in its democratic history.
The prize is not merely one seat in parliament, but if Labour’s Andy Burnham takes it, he will almost certainly become prime minister within the next few weeks or months.
The by-election was called when the local MP suddenly resigned to make way for Greater Manchester Mayor Burnham, who would become eligible to stand for the party leadership if elected.
The current Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, has been hugely weakened by a series of ministerial resignations since the last election, and is unlikely to survive beyond 2026. All the following markets, both for Thursday and longer term, are at stake.
Makerfield By-Election
Labour -600
Reform +350
Labour Vote Share
Over/Under 45.5%
Reform Vote Share
Over/Under 42.5
Next Prime Minister
Andy Burnham -325
Angela Rayner +650
Ed Miliband +1400
Wes Streeting +2000
Nigel Farage +2800
Al Carns +2800
Keir Starmer Exit Date (Year)
2026 -700
2027 +500
2028 +2500
2029 +1400
2030 Or Later +8000
Keir Starmer Exit Date (Month)
Apr-Jun +10000
Jul-Sep -250
Oct-Dec +400
2027 Or Later +375
Next World Leader To Leave
Keir Starmer -325
Benjamin Netanyahu +350
Luis Da Silva +800
Xavier Milei +2800
Donald Trump +2800
Emmanuel Macron +3300
Vladimir Putin +4000
Volodomyr Zelenskyy +4000
Recep Tayyip Erdogan +12500
Anthony Albanese +20000
