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Ken Paxton, the current Attorney General of Texas, was pretty much a "lock" to win the Republican primary in that state on Tuesday even though this one is likely to head for a May runoff. Both the Republican and Democratic primary is being held for the Senate seat currently occupied by Republican John Cornyn.
Oddsmakers had Paxton as a 1/7 favorite over Cornyn, who looks well on his way to loosing this race in the primary. U.S. President Donald Trump opted not to endorse any of the Republican candidates.
Despite his short odds of winning Tuesday's primary, Paxton remains a controversial figure who has dealt with various scandals in recent years.
The U.S. Department of Justice declined to prosecute the Texas Attorney General on federal corruption charges in April 2025, ending a long-running investigation into accusations of abusing his office.
Following his 2023 impeachment acquittal and a 2024 deal to end securities fraud charges, Paxton remains in office, focusing on conservative litigation.
Recent polling suggests that Paxton and Cornyn will be heading for a May runoff due to this being a three-way race and neither candidate is expected to receive more than 50 percent of the vote.
The Democratic primary certainly offers greater value for gamblers though Representative James Talarico is favored at close to 2/1 odds to beat fellow Representative jasmine Crockett.
An Emerson College Polling/KXAN survey of likely Texas primary voters shows Talarico narrowly leading Crockett in the Democratic Primary.
Talarico is a fast rising star in the Democratic party. Talarico openly identifies as Christian and has even attended seminary, a characteristic seen as potentially having appeal among Republican voters.
“Politics is another word for how we treat our neighbors," he has said.
BetOnline is also offering Margin of Victory odds for both races.
Texas Democratic Primary Winner
James Talarico 4/7 (-175)
Jasmine Crockett 7/5 (+140)
(NOTE: Odds equate to a 64% implied probability Talarico will win. He was 60% last week.)
Texas Democratic Primary - Margin of Victory
Talarico 0-2.49% (3/1)
Crockett 0-2.49% (4/1)
Talarico 2.50-4.99% (5/1)
Crockett 2.50-4.99% (7/1)
Talarico 5.00-7.49% (8/1)
Crockett 5.00-7.49% (9/1)
Talarico 7.50-9.99% (9/1)
Talarico 10% or Higher (9/1)
Crockett 7.50-9.99% (14/1)
Crockett 10% or Higher (15/1)
Texas Republican Primary Winner
Ken Paxton (1/7)
John Cornyn (4/1)
Wesley Hunt (33/1)
(NOTE: Odds equate to an 88% implied probability Paxton will win)
Texas Republican Primary - Margin of Victory
Paxton 2.50-4.99% (3/2)
Paxton 0-2.49% (3/1)
Paxton 5.00-7.49% (5/1)
Cornyn 0-2.49% (7/1)
Paxton 7.50-9.99% (8/1)
Paxton 10% or Higher (12/1)
Cornyn 2.50-4.99% (16/1)
Cornyn 5.00-7.49% (33/1)
Any Other Result (40/1)
Cornyn 7.50% or Higher (65/1)
- T.C. Jackson, Gambling911.com
