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Joe Pompliano, Sports + Business | Investing at Pomp Investments | Host of The Joe Pomp Show, his popular X page that a newly created Polymarket account invested over $30,000 yesterday in Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro's exit.
New betting markets were expected to open on Venezuela and Maduro's ultimate fate in the US legal system. Maduro was first indicted by the United States on federal criminal charges — including narco-terrorism, conspiracy to import cocaine, and related drug-trafficking offenses — on March 26, 2020.
On January 3, 2026, U.S. authorities released a new indictment naming Maduro (and his wife Cilia Flores) in New York on similar narcotics, weapons, and narco-terrorism charges, tied to the long-standing 2020 case but updated/expanded with additional defendants.
Madura was captured during the early morning hours at 1:01 am ET by US forces Saturday.
The United States hit Venezuela with a “large-scale strike” early Saturday and said its president had been captured and flown out of the country after months of intense pressure onMaduro’s government — an extraordinary nighttime operation announced by President Donald Trump on social media hours after the attack.
The legal authority for the attack, and whether Trump consulted Congress beforehand, was not immediately clear.
Pompliano wrote of prediction market activity late Friday:
A newly created Polymarket account invested over $30,000 yesterday in Maduro's exit. The US then took Maduro into custody overnight, and the trader profited $400,000 in less than 24 hours. Insider trading is not only allowed on prediction markets; it's encouraged.
Researcher Ttyson Brody offered this:
Some war related insider trading? A brand new account in polymarket, only invested in US going to war with Venezuela and Maduro out by January 31. Up 13k so far, was spending thousands on Maduro out at bargain prices as recently as 4 hours ago. Now it’s at .50.
Pompliano had this to add:
"This happens all the time on prediction markets. Their entire value proposition is delivering news faster and more accurately than anyone else, which is why their CEOs frequently talk about why insider trading is good and should be allowed."
Attorney Jake Chervinsky suggests this type of activity only adds to the concerns surrounding prediction markets emerging in the US at breakneck speed.
"I’m not sure CFTC will say it is “allowed” once prediction market regulation ramps up for real," he responded via X. "Or that federal prosecutors with criminal fraud statutes in their arsenal will say the same. Insider trade at your own risk."
