Graham Platner Still Favored to Beat Susan Collins, But Odds Are Getting Shorter

A sense of dread is overshadowing the Democratic Senate primary in Maine.

Graham Platner was expected to easily secure the nomination after Governor Janet Mills unexpectedly suspended her campaign in late April.

Instead, growing controversies and scandals surrounding Platner have fueled deep anxieties among party lawmakers and activists, exposing sharp internal divisions ahead of Tuesday's vote.

That said, Platner is still a large enough favorite to take Tuesday's Democratic primary that odds are even being offered on that race. His margin of victory is projected at a whopping 50 percent.  He's just a -140 odds favorite to beat incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins in the general election, despite polls showing he is way ahead.

The odds favor Janet Mills endorsing Platner before the midterms, and there are also some close races (in terms of the odds) for Maine House District 2 and the Governor Democratic Primary.

Maine primaries odds are subject to change.

Graham Platner Margin of Victory - June 9 Primary

Over/Under 50.5%

Will Janet Mills endorse Platner for Senate?

Yes -140

No +100

(Note: Odds imply a 58.3% probability Mills will endorse Platner)

Will Platner be elected to Senate in 2026?

Yes -140

No +100

(Note: Odds imply a 58.3% probability Platner will be elected)

Maine Governor - Democratic Primary

Troy Jackson +105

Nirav Shah +150

Hannah Pingree +350

Shenna Bellows 40/1

Angus King III 40/1

(Note: Odds imply a 48.8% probability Jackson will win primary)

Maine Governor - Republican Primary

Robert Charles -1650

Jonathan Bush +650

Ben Midgley 20/1

(Note: Odds imply a 94.3% probability Charles will win primary)

Maine-02 - Democratic Primary

Joe Baldacci -225

Jordan Wood +225

Matthew Dunlap 8/1

Paige Loud 25/1

(Note: Odds imply a 69.2% probability Baldacci will win primary)