Gambling Markets Give 61 Percent Chance That Iran President Raisi Will Be Found Monday

Polymarket, the decentralized prediction market platform that allows users to place bets on world events, released a betting market on Iranian President Raisi being found over the next 24 hours beginning just after Noon ET on Sunday.  A helicopter carrying the president crashed in bad weather.  At least two passengers on board have reportedly made contact with rescuers but the search has been hampered by ongoing bad weather.  The odds favor Raisi being located by Monday Noon ET at -156 (61 percent chance).

Even Odds -100 Biden and Trump Currently

The helicopter crashed on Sunday as it was crossing mountain terrain in heavy fog, an Iranian official told Reuters, and rescuers were struggling to reach the site of the incident.

The official said the lives of Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian were "at risk following the helicopter crash", which happened on the way back from a visit to the border with Azerbaijan in Iran's northwest.

"We are still hopeful but information coming from the crash site is very concerning," the official told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Reactions Worldwide

TURKISH PRESIDENT TAYYIP ERDOGAN
"I convey my best wishes to our neighbour, friend and brother Iranian people and government, and I hope to receive good news from Mr Raisi and his delegation as soon as possible," Erdogan said in a post on social media platform X.

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES FOREIGN MINISTRY
The ministry said in a statement the UAE was prepared to offer all possible support in the search and rescue operations.

U.N. SECRETARY-GENERAL ANTONIO GUTERRES
"The Secretary-General is following reports of an incident with Iranian President Raisi's aircraft with concern. He hopes for the safety of the president and his entourage," a U.N. spokesperson said in a statement.

RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY
"Russia is ready to extend all necessary help in the search for the missing helicopter and the investigation of the reasons for the incident," foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in a comment carried by Russia's RIA news agency.

U.S. STATE DEPARTMENT
"We are closely following reports of a possible hard landing of a helicopter in Iran carrying the Iranian president and foreign minister," a State Department spokesperson said in a statement.

U.S. PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN
A spokesperson for President Biden, Karine Jean-Pierre, told reporters aboard Air Force One that the president had been briefed on the situation. She did not elaborate.

Middle East Betting Markets

Note on Middle East Markets offered at Polymarket: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and Twitter could not.

Note: Polymarket is taking 0 fees on this and providing the service at a loss.

Polymarket does not take bets from those in the U.S. at this time.