Gamblers Bet Ukraine Holds Kursk Through October 31

Ukraine poured thousands of troops into the western Russian region of Kursk last week, pulling down Russian flags in towns seized by its soldiers.

On Wednesday, officials in Kyiv said Ukraine would use seized Russian territory as a "buffer zone" to shield its north from Russian strikes.

Oleksandr Syrskyi, head of the Ukrainian armed forces, said on Thursday that Kyiv had set up a military commandant's office in the occupied part of Kursk, suggesting ambitions to dig in.

The occupied area exceeds 1,150 sq km, Syrskyi said.

But how long can Ukraine hold on?

There is a betting market for that.

Polymarket began offering wagering on Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukrainian forces maintain control of any part of the Kursk Oblast of Russia, through 11:59 PM ET on October 31, 2024. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

If Ukrainian forces at any point no longer control any territory in the Kursk Oblast, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

Control is defined as Ukrainian forces being present and actively holding territory in the Kursk Oblast.

The primary resolution source for this market will be maps and reports published by the Institute for the Study of War, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.