Gadhafi a Keeper? Prediction Market Pushes Likelihood of Ouster Back Down to 66 Percent

Written by:
Gilbert Horowitz
Published on:
Mar/29/2011
Gadhafi

Just when it looked as if opposition forces were starting to make some serious headway in their march towards Tripoli, the armed rebels have come against some resistance just outside Moammar Gadhafi’s birthplace of Sirte.  Armed civilians had fired at the opposition, forcing them to retreat. 

The potential for continued resistance and US President Obama’s insistence that the coalition’s goal is not regime change apparently caused a seismic shift in the prediction market.

Intrade.com had the chance of Gadhafi being ousted by year’s end at 73.5 percent on Monday March 28.  Less than 24 hours later, that number had slipped all the way down to 66.1 percent, close to a 10 percent drop.

The United States has appointed veteran diplomat Chris Stevens as envoy to the Libyan rebels in Benghazi and expect him to go there soon to get a "clearer picture" of the rebel leadership.

 

Syrian Hotbed

 

Syria is currently experiencing uprisings as well though that country’s leader, Bashar al-Assad, is scheduled to come forward on Wednesday to announce various reforms.  His entire cabinet resigned on Tuesday, however, such a move had little effect on the uprisings in Egypt last month.  Odds on a Bashar al-Assad ouster remained around the same as yesterday at 40 percent.

"We believe President Assad is at a crossroads. He has claimed to be a reformer for over a decade but he has made no substantive progress on political reforms and we urge him to ... address the needs and the aspirations of the Syrian people," US State Department spokesman Mark Toner told reporters on Tuesday amidst continued protests.

"He has claimed the mantle of reform and he has implemented some economic reforms but on the political side he needs to make more progress frankly -- substantive progress," Toner said.

 

Egypt Update

 

In a bit of good news, Gambling911.com can report that Web traffic from Egypt has begun to flow in once again following unrest in that Middle Eastern nation resulting in the resignation of long time leader Hosni Mubarek. 

Egypt had shut off Internet access for much of the country during the uprisings.

Ironically, Egypt has been  known as one of the most progressive Arab countries when it comes to Internet access and connectivity with very nominal censorship employed.

- Gilbert Horowitz, Gambling911.com

 

Gambling911.com continues to monitor the latest uprisings in the Middle East and North America with all the updated prediction market analysis.  You can follow the Mideast/Arab/Gadhafi odds section of the site here

 

 

Follow us on Twitter for all the latest breaking gambling news

Follow us on Facebook.  Become a fan here.

Politics News

Worst Kept Secret: Biden 2020, Latest Odds

Worst Kept Secret: Biden 2020, Latest Odds

Former US Vice President Joe Biden has "almost" made it official.  He's running for President for 2020.

Bernie Sanders Moves to the Top of the Pack

Bernie Sanders Moves to the Top of the Pack

Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders is now favored to win the Democratic nomination for the 2020 U.S. Presidential race following a highly rated Fox News Town Hall.

Political Betting Markets Now Favor Buttigieg as Biden Falls Out of Favor

Political Betting Markets Now Favor Buttigieg as Biden Falls Out of Favor

Second woman steps forward to say former VP touched her inappropriately

Brexit Hell: Latest Odds

Brexit Hell: Latest Odds

Brexit exit dates in 2019 at 1/10 odds most books

Brexit - No 2nd EU Referendum Say Oddsmakers

Brexit - No 2nd EU Referendum Say Oddsmakers

Theresa May was set to rule out a no-deal Brexit to stave off rebellion and avoid a rebellion by members of parliament, who are threatening to grab control of the divorce process, The Sun and Daily Mail newspapers reported.

Syndicate