Gadhafi a Keeper? Prediction Market Pushes Likelihood of Ouster Back Down to 66 Percent

Written by:
Gilbert Horowitz
Published on:

Just when it looked as if opposition forces were starting to make some serious headway in their march towards Tripoli, the armed rebels have come against some resistance just outside Moammar Gadhafi’s birthplace of Sirte.  Armed civilians had fired at the opposition, forcing them to retreat. 

The potential for continued resistance and US President Obama’s insistence that the coalition’s goal is not regime change apparently caused a seismic shift in the prediction market. had the chance of Gadhafi being ousted by year’s end at 73.5 percent on Monday March 28.  Less than 24 hours later, that number had slipped all the way down to 66.1 percent, close to a 10 percent drop.

The United States has appointed veteran diplomat Chris Stevens as envoy to the Libyan rebels in Benghazi and expect him to go there soon to get a "clearer picture" of the rebel leadership.


Syrian Hotbed


Syria is currently experiencing uprisings as well though that country’s leader, Bashar al-Assad, is scheduled to come forward on Wednesday to announce various reforms.  His entire cabinet resigned on Tuesday, however, such a move had little effect on the uprisings in Egypt last month.  Odds on a Bashar al-Assad ouster remained around the same as yesterday at 40 percent.

"We believe President Assad is at a crossroads. He has claimed to be a reformer for over a decade but he has made no substantive progress on political reforms and we urge him to ... address the needs and the aspirations of the Syrian people," US State Department spokesman Mark Toner told reporters on Tuesday amidst continued protests.

"He has claimed the mantle of reform and he has implemented some economic reforms but on the political side he needs to make more progress frankly -- substantive progress," Toner said.


Egypt Update


In a bit of good news, can report that Web traffic from Egypt has begun to flow in once again following unrest in that Middle Eastern nation resulting in the resignation of long time leader Hosni Mubarek. 

Egypt had shut off Internet access for much of the country during the uprisings.

Ironically, Egypt has been  known as one of the most progressive Arab countries when it comes to Internet access and connectivity with very nominal censorship employed.

- Gilbert Horowitz, continues to monitor the latest uprisings in the Middle East and North America with all the updated prediction market analysis.  You can follow the Mideast/Arab/Gadhafi odds section of the site here



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