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The Democratic party in the US is now expected to take over the House in the 2026 midterms with an 80 percent chance per Polymarket, as of Friday morning.
More concerns emerged within the Republican party following a tighter-than-expected win in a reliably conservative U.S. House district in Tennessee’s special election. And that single-digit victory only came after a burst of national spending.
“The danger signs are there, and we shouldn’t have had to spend that kind of money to hold that kind of seat,” said Jason Roe, a national Republican strategist working on battleground races next year.
He said that “Democratic enthusiasm is dramatically higher than Republican enthusiasm.”
The Democratic party's chance of winning the House sat at just over 60 percent in early November at Polymarket. Just over $731,835 in betting volume has been recorded at that site to date.
BREAKING: Democrats surge in midterm odds.
80% chance they take the House. pic.twitter.com/FhOlKvwS35— Polymarket (@Polymarket) December 4, 2025
Control of the Senate is still very much leaning towards the Republicans with that number only dipping slightly since the summer, moving from a 72 percent chance down to a 66 percent chance as of December 5, 2025.
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
- TC Jackson, Gambling911.com Politics
