Chances of a Trump Impeachment Increase With Latest Bookmaker Odds

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  • Special prosecutor brought in
  • First Republican steps forward Wednesday night to call for impeachment of Trump
  • With impeachment odds back up, Betfair reports “overnight we’ve seen more than [£5,000] bet on Trump to leave before the end of his first term”
  • Paddy Power odds of an impeachment stand at 2/1

As reported by Tuesday night, the bookmakers were quick to pull odds on a Donald Trump impeachment following a series of negative media reports.  The news cycle continues to spiral out of control with former FBI Director Robert S. Mueller III named as a special prosecutor to investigate any alleged dealings between Trump or his associates and the Russians.


Tuesday’s late breaking news by the New York Times suggests that fired FBI Director James Comey may have left a paper trail detailing his meetings with the US President.

The Times report detailed allegations that Trump had asked Comey to drop any investigation into former national security adviser, Michael T. Flynn.

While only one of the Republican politicians have mentioned the word “impeachment”, a number of Democrats are now insisting on Trump’s removal.

On Wednesday morning, Rep. Justin Amash (R-Mich.) said reports that President Trump pressed ousted Comey to end an investigation would merit impeachment if true.

During a Coast Guard commencement speech early Wednesday afternoon, the Trump once again insisted he is a target of a media hit job, saying that no US president has ever been treated so unfairly.

“I did not get elected to serve the Washington media, I got elected to support the forgotten American people,” Trump said before the crowd.

By Wednesday morning, the financial markets witnessed a decline of around -250 in morning trading.  By the close of the day, the Dow had suffered its biggest one-day drop since September of this past year at -360.

But it’s the betting markets across the globe that may offer a more realistic glimpse into the future of the US Presidency. 

“Overnight we’ve seen more than [£5,000] bet on Trump to leave before the end of his first term, and we expect to see a lot more bet today, with his odds now shortening from evens into 5/6,” Katie Baylis, spokeswoman at Betfair PPB, +0.95%  , said in a note Wednesday morning. That implies a 55% probability that the president will exit before his term ends.

“And many punters think it won’t be too long before he departs, with the odds of him leaving this year now into 12/5 from 11/2 — a 27% chance [up] from 16% before the latest allegations,” Baylis added.

Another £13,000 was wagered by day’s end Tuesday in the UK.

At Irish bookie Paddy Power, the odds of an impeachment stand at 2/1, or a 33% chance, while an outright Trump resignation is priced at 15/8, implying a 35% chance.  Those percentage marks were expected to increase with news of the Mueller appointment. 

The US President is set to embark on a week long trip through the Middle East, concluding at the Vatican where Trump will meet with Pope Francis. 

- Gilbert Horowitz,

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