Ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine before October 2024 Betting Odds

The betting market for a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine got a little hotter this week following news that Russian President Vladimir Putin is seeking a ceasefire along the current front lines.

Putin reportedly views recent gains in the war as enough to sell a victory to the Russian people.

"Putin can fight for as long as it takes, but Putin is also ready for a ceasefire - to freeze the war," a senior Russian source who has reportedly worked with Mr Putin and has knowledge of top-level conversations in the Kremlin, told Reuters.

The Russian president later told a press conference on Friday that peace talks with Ukraine need to be renewed, but they "must reflect realities on the ground".

The prospect of a ceasefire, or even peace talks, currently seems remote however. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly said peace on Putin's terms is a non-starter. He has vowed to retake lost territory, including Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014. He signed a decree in 2022 that formally declared any talks with Putin "impossible."

Both sides rejected a temporary ceasefire proposal put out by French President Emmanuel Macron to halt all fighting during the Summer Olympics.

Russian forces have intensified the bombardment of the southern region of Kharkiv.

Polymarket released the Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire betting market Friday afternoon with the following details as to how it will resolve:

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the governments of Ukraine and Russia both officially announce an armistice, ceasefire and/or negotiated settlement between the two countries that will go into effect by September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET.

To count toward the resolution of this market, an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement must be indicative of at least a temporary pause in the Ukraine-Russia military conflict, must pertain to all theaters of military conflict between the two countries, and be declared through official channels by both countries.

If only one country (e.g. only Ukraine, or only Russia) officially announces an armistice, ceasefire, and/or negotiated settlement, it will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Ukraine and the Russian Federation, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.