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Though the Democratic party appears to be in "panic" mode, the betting markets do not see Joe Biden dropping out of the 2024 presidential race following a universally panned debate performance, one in which the Biden even admitted he performed poorly.
Biden’s halting delivery and meandering comments, particularly early in the debate, fueled concerns over his ability to lead the U.S. for another four years.
Biden appeared to acknowledge the criticism during a rally in Raleigh, North Carolina, saying ”I don’t debate as well as I used to.” But he added, “I know how to do this job. I know how to get things done.” Speaking for 18 minutes, Biden appeared far more animated than he had the night before as he excoriated Trump for his “lies” and for waging a campaign aimed at “revenge and retribution.”
The current U.S. president appears to have gained back some ground at BetOnline where he moved beyond +300 odds. He now sits at +250 to be re-elected with Donald Trump favored to win at -175.
Trump leads Biden 45% to 43% among likely voters in an election held today, June 28 2024, the day following the first Presidential debate. 6% of likely voters say they would vote for another candidate; 7% are undecided. SurveyUSA conducted this research immediately after Thursday's debate. More polls are expected in the coming days.
Among the other findings:
If Biden is replaced on the top of the ticket, which Democrat should replace him?
- 43% of likely Democratic voters say it should be Vice President Kamala Harris, including 63% of Black Democrats, 56% of Democrats age 35 to 49, 55% of those with children under 18 at home, and 53% of those with high school educations. Harris leads or ties as the top choice among every demographic subgroup.
- 16% choose California Governor Gavin Newsom, including a high of 24% among the oldest and typically most reliable voters, where he is tied with Harris. Newsom also sees outsized support among Democrats with higher income and education levels, and among men.
- 8% choose Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who outperforms his numbers among white and rural Democrats.
- 7% choose Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, who outperforms her numbers among liberals.
- 4% choose Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro; 2% Maryland Governor Wes Moore; 1% choose someone else. 20% are undecided.
Biden stood a 37% of dropping out of the race, according to the betting market at Polymarket.
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