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75% of those at Polymarket believed Israel would respond to an attack on that nation that took place on back in October of 2024. Just over $42,000 was wagered on this betting market, released just hours after the attack.
Polymarket had offered odds on Israel attacking Iran by July of 2025 and that came to fruition during the early morning hours of Friday June 13 with Israel launching an attack on Iran, killing many of that nation's senior military leaders and nuclear scientists.
The betting market for an Israeli strike on an Iranian nuclear facility came in at slightly under 20 percent as recently two days ago at Polymarket, rising to 35% by Wednesday and 45 percent Thursday morning.
Israel said it had damaged a key nuclear facility, and Iran confirmed several military commanders were killed.
US President Trump, meanwhile, warned Tehran to agree to new limits on its nuclear program or risk “even more brutal” attacks.
The New York Times noted that Israel’s wide-ranging strike against Iran on Friday was years in the making, the result of extensive intelligence gathering on the country’s nuclear sites as well as on top military officials and scientists, according to three Israeli officials with knowledge of the operations.
Kalshi's odds on a new US-Iran nuclear deal plunged from a 44% chance to 29% overnight.
Trump had already stated he was less confident that Iran will agree to stop uranium enrichment in a nuclear deal with Washington, according to an interview released on Wednesday. This was prior to Israeli's attack early morning Friday.
"I don’t know," Trump told the "Pod Force One" podcast on Monday when asked if he thought he could get Iran to agree to shut down its nuclear program. "I don’t know. I did think so, and I’m getting more and more — less confident about it."
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