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Gamblers remain bearish that Ali Khamenei will be out as Supreme Leader of Iran, even before April 1.
At Kalshi, only 26% of traders believe Khamenei will be out by the end of February while 46% feel it happens by April.
The numbers don't start getting more favorable until July where there is currently a 54% chance of Khamenei no longer being Iran's Supreme Leader based on gambler sentiment.
The U.S.-based Human Rights Activists News Agency, which relies on activists in Iran cross-checking information, offered anew death toll tally of 203 on Sunday as government protests in Iran reportedly escalate.
Of those killed, 162 are protesters and 41 are members of the security forces, it said. The agency also acknowledged receiving claims of far more deaths that it was still assessing as over 3,280 others have been arrested.
Iran’s parliament speaker warned Sunday that the U.S. military and Israel would be “legitimate targets” if the U.S. strikes the Islamic Republic over the ongoing protests roiling the country, as threatened by President Donald Trump.
Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf made the threat after nationwide protests challenging Iran’s theocracy saw protesters flood the streets in the country’s capital and its second-largest city into Sunday morning, crossing the two-week mark. At least 203 people have died in violence surrounding the demonstrations, activists said, with fears the death toll is far higher.
It remains unclear just how serious Iran is about launching a strike, particularly after its air defenses were destroyed during the 12-day war in June with Israel. Any decision to go to war would rest with Iran’s 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
- T.C. Jackson, Gambling911.com
