..

Christine O’Donnell Falls Further At Betting Exchange

Written by:
Jagajeet Chiba
Published on:
Oct/13/2010

Following a televised debate of the Delaware Senatorial campaign between Republican and Tea Party favorite Christine O’Donnell and Democrat Chris Coons, O’Donnell’s chances of winning fell another couple of percentage points to 9 percent based on the gambling public’s sentiment at online wagering exchange intrade.com.  More than 3329 individuals had bet on O’Donnell, either to win or lose, most to lose this Election Day.

Prediction markets have proven highly accurate especially as they pertain to political elections.

From Wikipedia: 

Steven Gjerstad (Purdue) in his paper "Risk Aversion, Beliefs, and Prediction Market Equilibrium," has shown that prediction market prices are very close to the mean belief of market participants if the agents are risk averse and the distribution of beliefs is spread out (as with a normal distribution, for example). Justin Wolfers (Wharton) and Eric Zitzewitz (Dartmouth) have obtained similar results, and also include some analysis of prediction market data, in their paper "Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities” In practice, the prices of binary prediction markets have proven to be closely related to actual frequencies of events in the real world.

As for the substance of the debate itself, James Fallows of the Conservative media publication The Atlantic calls O’Donnell “more dangerous than Sarah Palin”, referencing her ability to connect via media outlets.

He writes:

In this debate tonight, O'Donnell has not seemed uncomfortable for one second** -- even in her most obvious dodge, about whether she really thinks evolution is a "myth." The difference is, she is a talk show regular.

Most of the nation outside of Delaware missed O’Donnell’s one major gaffe of the night, her inability to name a single recent Supreme Court decision.  CNN had cut into its live debate coverage to broadcast the final miner being brought up to the surface in Chile. 

Another highlight of the night was when O’Donnell stated that Coons learned his “beliefs from an articulate intelligent Marxist professor … that should send chills up the spine of every Delaware voter”. – Jagajeet Chiba reporting for Gambling911.com.

Politics News

Warren Leads Democrat Odds and Fun Prop Bets for Debate

Warren Leads Democrat Odds and Fun Prop Bets for Debate

Ahead of the year's third Democratic Debate, oddsmakers have again set odds for a number of interesting prop bets.

Bet the Next Dem to Drop

Bet the Next Dem to Drop

After Kirsten Gillibrand withdrew her name from the race to be next year's Democratic nominee, oddsmakers are forecasting who might be the next to drop out.

Denmark Prime Minister Refuses to Talk Greenland Sale, Trump Cancels Trip, Odds Still 25-1

Denmark Prime Minister Refuses to Talk Greenland Sale, Trump Cancels Trip, Odds Still 25-1

US President Donald Trump's quest to purchase Greenland continues to make headlines.  BetOnline Tuesday posted odds of 25-1 on Trump purchasing the semi-autonomous Danish territory.

Trump Buys Greenland

Trump Buys Greenland at 25-1 Odds

Not fake news after all.  US President Donald Trump confirmed over the weekend that he indeed has discussed the possibility of buying the autonomous country of the Kingdom of Denmark.  The Danes say it's not for sale.

Tom Steyer to Qualify for Next Debate According to Oddsmakers

Tom Steyer to Qualify for Next Debate According to Oddsmakers

The oddsmakers anticipate that only two names will be added to the current nine-person field for the third Democratic debate next month. 

Syndicate