Packers vs. Lions Thanksgiving Day Game Betting Preview

Written by:
Don Shapiro
Published on:

It’s an NFL marriage dating back to 1934, Thanksgiving and the Detroit Lions. This Thursday, an NFC North battle with the 4-6 Green Bay Packers and the 8-2 Lions in the 189th meeting between the teams. Green Bay is leading the series, 105-76-7, though it was Lions, 34-20, at Lambeau Field in late September.


While the Pack is not back, Green Bay did manage a 23-20 home win over the underachieving Los Angeles Chargers this past Sunday. Quarterback Jordan Love’s career-high 322 passing yards were punctuated by a late touchdown pass to Romeo Doubs.

Love was the first Packer not named Aaron Rodgers (December of 2021) to have 300 yards through the air.

Detroit hasn’t had a record this gaudy at this juncture of the season since 1962, that after a late home rally (game’s final 17 points in last three minutes) against the Chicago Bears last Sunday. While the Bears had twice the time of possession (40:24 to 19:36), they couldn’t close the sale.

Thus, the Lions have a 2½-game lead over the Minnesota Vikings in the division, Green Bay four games back. Detroit is 5-1 (+500) to win the NFC, Green Bay at 80 (+8000), as per NFL conference odds.

Detroit is a 7½-point favorite (total at 46), according to NFL odds.

Moneyline is Lions -350, Packers at +280. 

Promise in Packerland

The Green Bay Packers have won twice in their last three, a .500 record (or close in a 17-game season) not out of the question. Green Bay has allowed 24 or fewer points in its last six games (since the first meeting with Detroit), so the defense has kept the team in it  

Quarterback Jordan Love (2,331 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, 10 interceptions) coms off his best game as a pro, albeit against the porous secondary of the Los Angeles Chargers. Love didn’t throw a pick in (not coincidentally) the team’s last two victories.   

Romeo Doubs, Luke Musgrace and Jayden Reed each have 30-plus receptions on the season, with Doubs’ seven touchdowns leading the team. 

Running back Aaron Jones suffered a knee injury against the Bolts, a frustrating 2023 which previously included an injured hamstring. 

One wouldn’t expect to see Jones Thursday, though not officially ruled out as of this writing.

As was mentioned, the Packer defense has played well to date, having surrendered 

20.2 points per game (10th in league). 

Rarifying the Roar 

The Detroit Lions have done a lot of things well this season, on both sides of the ball. Detroit is scoring 27.2 points per game (sixth in NFL) this season, with only the Miami Dolphins averaging more yards (434 to 399.6) per game entering the season’s twelfth week. 

Quarterback Jared Goff (2,743 passing yards, 16 touchdowns, eight interceptions) is having as good a season as any quarterback in the league, though still a bit fast and loose at times.

Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam La Porta have a combined 123 receptions, nearly 1,400 yards and nine touchdowns, 

Running backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs each have more than 500 ground yards.

Defensively, the team is stingy against the run (89½ yards per game, fifth in league), so don’t figure this already-suspect Packer ground game to have any sort of success.

Detroit to Dominate

The Detroit Lions have a 37-44-2 Thanksgiving Day record, and while the Green Bay Packers enter this game with some momentum, it’s a tough assignment before getting to the turkey.

Detroit erased a dooen-point deficit in less than four minutes to take down the Chicago Bears, remaining at home to oppose another NFC North foe.

Bet the Detroit Lions -7½ as they take care of business, rolling to a huge holiday win over the Green Bay Packers.

- Don Shapiro,

Football News News

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