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Yesterday the Mets exploded for14 runs off of 16 hits, despite facing Detroit Tiger's ace Justin Verlander. The damage wasn't all done on Verlander though, as the Detroit bullpen yielded nine of the runs itself. Because of that latter fact, New York comes into Wednesday's contest backed by a powerful FoxSheets Super Situation. Sportsbook.com has the Mets as -115 favorites; however, that price could rise if bettors get their hands on this system.
The angle in focus is based squarely upon the recent performance of the bullpens of both teams. It reads as follows:
Play Against - Road teams (DETROIT) - after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 6 or more earned runs against opponent with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games. (64-21 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.3%, +39.7 units. Rating = 4*)
The average money line posted in these games was: Team favored with a money line of: -115.7
The average score in these games was: Team 5.2, Opponent 3.7 (Average run differential = +1.4)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0, +3.1 units).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (29-10, +17.5 units).
Since 1997 the situation's record is: (148-92, +25.6 units).
This system is already 3-0 for 2010, producing 3.1 units of profit in just three games. Over the last five seasons, the return on investment had you wagered every qualifying game would have been an astronomical 46.7%.
Wednesday's pitching matchup shows the Tigers going with Jeremy Bonderman vs. the Mets' R.A. Dickey.
Dickey (5-0, 2.82 ERA), recalled from Triple-A Buffalo on May 19, has been a major surprise for New York. He'll take the mound looking to become the first starter to win his first six decisions with the club.
The 35-year-old knuckleballer is also vying to become the first Met to win six starts in a row since Mike Pelfrey did it from June 16-July 13, 2008.
The Mets are second in the NL East, 1 1/2 games behind first-place Atlanta.
Dickey is 2-2 with a 4.69 ERA in 12 games - five starts - versus the Tigers. He lost his last appearance against them July 3, giving up four runs and nine hits in three innings of relief for Minnesota.
The Tigers have dropped nine of 12 on the road, and the staff has a 6.36 ERA in that stretch.
Bonderman (3-4, 4.06) is 1-2 with a 6.03 ERA in six road starts, but comes off a solid outing and will now try to win a second consecutive start for the first time since a personal eight-game winning streak from April 30-June 20, 2007.
Bonderman is 1-1 with a 7.36 ERA in two starts against the Mets
The StatFox Power Line shows the Mets should be a favorite of -131, perhaps indicating a slight under-pricing by Sportsbook.com. For those interested in the total, that number shows OV8.5 +105.
