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AUSTIN, Texas (Gambling911.com) - Five days before Election Day, Ken Paxton holds a one-point lead in the Texas Senate race in the Quantus Insights poll. That is good news for Paxton but the poll also tends to lean Republican. Also CNN released a poll that had Democrat James Talarico up 7 points just a day earlier. That is well outside the margin of error.
The Quantus Insight poll was conducted from October 26 to 28 with a survey of 1,221 likely voters has Paxton at 48.7 percent and James Talarico at 47.6. Ted Brown, the Libertarian, takes 1.4 and 2.2 percent are undecided. The margin of error on the difference between two candidates runs about ±6.4, so Paxton's edge is within it, but the direction has been consistent: he led our early October survey too, and the lead has grown slightly since.
The odds still favor Talarico, who comes in priced at -275 Friday afternoon, compared to Paxton promising a payout of $215 for every $100 bet with a win.
Talarico's odds moved up nearly three quarters of a point over the last 48 hours.
Biggest Moves:
- Kansas is now a tossup. Roger Marshall (R) went from a -180 favorite to -115, and Adam Hamilton (D) moved from +150 to -115, so the two are even. This is the only Senate race where the favorite’s lead disappeared completely.
- South Carolina tightened the most. Darline Graham (R) went from -600 to -275, which drops her implied probability from 86% to 73%. Annie Andrews (D) moved from +400 to +215.
- Louisiana: Julia Letlow (R) went from -4000 to -1600, a drop from 98% to 94%.
- Florida (Special): Ashley Moody (R) went from -1600 to -1000, a drop from 94% to 91%.
- Texas moved toward the Democrat. James Talarico (D) went from -185 to -220, which raises him from 65% to 69%. Ken Paxton (R) moved from +155 to +180.
Smaller Moves:
| Race | Candidate | Oct 22 → Oct 29 | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | Peltola (D) | -325 → -250 | 76% → 71% |
| Nebraska | Ricketts (R) | -300 → -250 | 75% → 71% |
| Michigan | El-Sayed (M) | -275 → -250 | 73% → 71% |
| Maine | Jackson (D) | -175 → -165 | 64% → 62% |
| Minnesota | Flanagan (D) | -1400 → -1000 | 93% → 91% |
| Arkansas | Cotton (R) | -2500 → -2000 | 96% → 95% |
| Mississippi | Hyde-Smith (R) | -1000 → -1200 | 91% → 92% |
| Iowa | Hinson (R) | -140 → -145 | 58% → 59% |
Margin-of-Victory Moves:
| Race | Change |
|---|---|
| North Carolina | Cooper’s line is new this week, at O/U 14.5% |
| South Dakota | Rounds 10.5% → 14.5% |
| Georgia | Ossoff 9.5% → 11.5% |
| Minnesota | Flanagan 6.5% → 8.5% |
| Alabama | Moore 19.5% → 18.5% |
| Arkansas | Cotton 15.5% → 14.5% |
| Florida (Special) | Moody 7.5% → 6.5% |
| State | Candidate | Odds | Probability |
| Alabama | Barry Moore (R) | -5000 | 98% |
| Everett Weiss (D) | +1600 | 2% | |
| Moore Margin of Victory | O/U 18.5% | ||
| Alaska | Dan Sullivan (R) | +200 | 29% |
| Mary Peltola (D) | -250 | 71% | |
| Arkansas | Tom Cotton (R) | -2000 | 95% |
| Hallie Schoffner (D) | +1000 | 5% | |
| Cotton Margin of Victory | O/U 14.5% | ||
| Colorado | Mark Baisley (R) | +2000 | 1% |
| John Hickenlooper (D) | -10000 | 99% | |
| Hickenlooper Margin of Victory | O/U 22.5% | ||
| Delaware | Michael Katz (R) | +4000 | 1% |
| Chris Coons (D) | -20000 | 99% | |
| Coons Margin of Victory | O/U 28.5% | ||
| Florida (Special) | Ashley Moody (R) | -1000 | 91% |
| Angie Nixon (D) | +600 | 9% | |
| Moody Margin of Victory | O/U 6.5% | ||
| Georgia | Mike Collins (R) | +1600 | 2% |
| Jon Ossoff (D) | -5000 | 98% | |
| Ossoff Margin of Victory | O/U 11.5% | ||
| Idaho | Jim Risch (R) | -1800 | 95% |
| David Roth (D) | +10000 | 1% | |
| Todd Achilles (I) | +900 | 4% | |
| Risch Margin of Victory | O/U 18.5% | ||
| Illinois | Don Tracy (R) | +4000 | 1% |
| Juliana Stratton (D) | -20000 | 99% | |
| Stratton Margin of Victory | O/U 22.5% | ||
| Iowa | Ashley Hinson (R) | -145 | 59% |
| Josh Turek (D) | +115 | 41% | |
| Kansas | Roger Marshall (R) | -115 | 50% |
| Adam Hamilton (D) | -115 | 50% | |
| Kentucky | Andy Barr (R) | -4000 | 98% |
| Charles Booker (D) | +1500 | 2% | |
| Barr Margin of Victory | O/U 20.5% | ||
| Louisiana | Julia Letlow (R) | -1600 | 94% |
| Jamie Davis (D) | +800 | 6% | |
| Maine | Susan Collins (R) | +135 | 38% |
| Troy Jackson (D) | -165 | 62% | |
| Massachusetts | John Deaton (R) | +2000 | 1% |
| Ed Markey (D) | -10000 | 99% | |
| Markey Margin of Victory | O/U 32.5% | ||
| Michigan | Mike Rogers (R) | +200 | 29% |
| Abdul El-Sayed (M) | -250 | 71% | |
| Minnesota | Michele Tafoya (R) | +600 | 9% |
| Peggy Flanagan (D) | -1000 | 91% | |
| Flanagan Margin of Victory | O/U 8.5% | ||
| Mississippi | Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) | -1200 | 92% |
| Scott Colom (D) | +650 | 8% | |
| Hyde-Smith Margin of Victory | O/U 7.5% | ||
| Montana | Kurt Alme (R) | -2000 | 95% |
| Alani Bankhead (D) | +5000 | 1% | |
| Seth Bodnar (I) | +1000 | 4% | |
| Nebraska | Pete Ricketts (R) | -250 | 71% |
| Dan Osborn (I) | +200 | 29% | |
| New Hampshire | John Sununu (R) | +700 | 7% |
| Chris Pappas (D) | -1400 | 93% | |
| Pappas Margin of Victory | O/U 8.5% | ||
| New Jersey | Justin Murphy (R) | +1800 | 1% |
| Cory Booker (D) | -7500 | 99% | |
| Booker Margin of Victory | O/U 24.5% | ||
| New Mexico | Larry Marker (R) | +2000 | 1% |
| Ben Ray Lujan (D) | -10000 | 99% | |
| Lujan Margin of Victory | O/U 20.5% | ||
| North Carolina | Michael Whatley (R) | +2000 | 1% |
| Roy Cooper (D) | -10000 | 99% | |
| Cooper Margin of Victory | O/U 14.5% | ||
| Ohio (Special) | Jon Husted (R) | +185 | 31% |
| Sherrod Brown (D) | -225 | 69% | |
| Oklahoma | Kevin Hern (R) | -5000 | 98% |
| N'kiyla Jasmine Thomas (D) | +1600 | 2% | |
| Hern Margin of Victory | O/U 23.5% | ||
| Oregon | David Brock Smith (R) | +1600 | 2% |
| Jeff Merkley (D) | -5000 | 98% | |
| Merkley Margin of Victory | O/U 23.5% | ||
| Rhode Island | Raymond McKay (R) | +2000 | 1% |
| Jack Reed (D) | -10000 | 99% | |
| Reed Margin of Victory | O/U 30.5% | ||
| South Carolina | Darline Graham (R) | -275 | 73% |
| Annie Andrews (D) | +215 | 27% | |
| Graham Margin of Victory | O/U 4.5% | ||
| South Dakota | Mike Rounds (R) | -2000 | 95% |
| Brian Bengs (I) | +1000 | 5% | |
| Rounds Margin of Victory | O/U 14.5% | ||
| Tennessee | Bill Hagerty (R) | -10000 | 99% |
| Marquita Bradshaw (D) | +2000 | 1% | |
| Hagerty Margin of Victory | O/U 21.5% | ||
| Texas | Ken Paxton (R) | +180 | 31% |
| James Talarico (D) | -220 | 69% | |
| Virginia | Bert Mizusawa (R) | +2000 | 1% |
| Mark Warner (D) | -10000 | 99% | |
| Warner Margin of Victory | O/U 21.5% | ||
| West Virginia | Shelley Moore Capito (R) | -10000 | 99% |
| Rachel Fetty Anderson (D) | +2000 | 1% | |
| Capito Margin of Victory | O/U 32.5% | ||
| Wyoming | Harriet Hageman (R) | -10000 | 99% |
| James W. Byrd (D) | +2000 | 1% | |
| Hageman Margin of Victory | O/U 33.5% | 0 |
- T C Jackson, Gambling911.com
