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BATON ROUGE, La. (Gambling911.com) - Julia Letlow (R) went from being a -4000 favorite to -1600, a drop from 98% to a 94% probability of winning. It is one of the most significant declines in the odds we've seen, despite Letlow still looking relatively safe at -1600. Anything from -500 and over is typically considered a "lock".
This race was not considered to be in play. But Democratic candidate Jamie Davis, a farmer and one-time Tensas Parish police juror, could finish a lot closer than previously expected.
“Is it a stretch? Yeah, but less of a stretch than it was a week ago in people’s minds,” James Carville, the famous Cajun political consultant who helped Bill Clinton win the 1992 presidential election, said about Davis’ improving chances.
Letlow is still confident she will win the race.
“Louisianans know she has secured hundred of millions for our communities, fought for parents’ right in education, and worked to lower costs for working families, a record that stands in stark contrast to her opponent who would be nothing more than a rubber stamp for Chuck Schumer and the radical left,” Letlow’s campaign said in a written statement Wednesday.
Participation in Louisiana’s seven-day early voting period for the Nov. 3 election was the highest ever for a nonpresidential campaign cycle.
From The Hayride:
Almost 521,000 ballots were cast in-person and from absentee voters from Oct. 20-27. By comparison, the early voting period for the 2022 U.S. Senate race, which Republican John Kennedy won over Democrats Gary Chambers and Luke Mixon, saw 363,000 ballots cast.
Louisiana Republicans actually outnumbered Democratic voters in the early voting period for both the 2022 midterms elections and the 2024 presidential elections. In fact, Republicans outnumbered Democratic voters during early voting in the 2022 midterms by ~2k and ~83k in the 2024 presidential election.
Democratic party voters outnumbered Republican voters during Louisiana’s early voting period by nearly sixteen thousand votes (i.e. ~221k Dem to ~205k Republican). For context, registered Republicans now outnumber registered Democratic voters in Louisiana by a slight margin of ~7k as of October 1st, 2026.
A Hart Research poll conducted in mid-September surveyed 500 likely voters and showed Letlow with a 48% to 44% advantage over Davis.
Biggest Moves:
- Kansas is now a tossup. Roger Marshall (R) went from a -180 favorite to -115, and Adam Hamilton (D) moved from +150 to -115, so the two are even. This is the only Senate race where the favorite’s lead disappeared completely.
- South Carolina tightened the most. Darline Graham (R) went from -600 to -275, which drops her implied probability from 86% to 73%. Annie Andrews (D) moved from +400 to +215.
- Louisiana: Julia Letlow (R) went from -4000 to -1600, a drop from 98% to 94%.
- Florida (Special): Ashley Moody (R) went from -1600 to -1000, a drop from 94% to 91%.
- Texas moved toward the Democrat. James Talarico (D) went from -185 to -220, which raises him from 65% to 69%. Ken Paxton (R) moved from +155 to +180.
Smaller Moves:
| Race | Candidate | Oct 22 → Oct 29 | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | Peltola (D) | -325 → -250 | 76% → 71% |
| Nebraska | Ricketts (R) | -300 → -250 | 75% → 71% |
| Michigan | El-Sayed (M) | -275 → -250 | 73% → 71% |
| Maine | Jackson (D) | -175 → -165 | 64% → 62% |
| Minnesota | Flanagan (D) | -1400 → -1000 | 93% → 91% |
| Arkansas | Cotton (R) | -2500 → -2000 | 96% → 95% |
| Mississippi | Hyde-Smith (R) | -1000 → -1200 | 91% → 92% |
| Iowa | Hinson (R) | -140 → -145 | 58% → 59% |
Margin-of-Victory Moves:
| Race | Change |
|---|---|
| North Carolina | Cooper’s line is new this week, at O/U 14.5% |
| South Dakota | Rounds 10.5% → 14.5% |
| Georgia | Ossoff 9.5% → 11.5% |
| Minnesota | Flanagan 6.5% → 8.5% |
| Alabama | Moore 19.5% → 18.5% |
| Arkansas | Cotton 15.5% → 14.5% |
| Florida (Special) | Moody 7.5% → 6.5% |
| State | Candidate | Odds | Probability |
| Alabama | Barry Moore (R) | -5000 | 98% |
| Everett Weiss (D) | +1600 | 2% | |
| Moore Margin of Victory | O/U 18.5% | ||
| Alaska | Dan Sullivan (R) | +200 | 29% |
| Mary Peltola (D) | -250 | 71% | |
| Arkansas | Tom Cotton (R) | -2000 | 95% |
| Hallie Schoffner (D) | +1000 | 5% | |
| Cotton Margin of Victory | O/U 14.5% | ||
| Colorado | Mark Baisley (R) | +2000 | 1% |
| John Hickenlooper (D) | -10000 | 99% | |
| Hickenlooper Margin of Victory | O/U 22.5% | ||
| Delaware | Michael Katz (R) | +4000 | 1% |
| Chris Coons (D) | -20000 | 99% | |
| Coons Margin of Victory | O/U 28.5% | ||
| Florida (Special) | Ashley Moody (R) | -1000 | 91% |
| Angie Nixon (D) | +600 | 9% | |
| Moody Margin of Victory | O/U 6.5% | ||
| Georgia | Mike Collins (R) | +1600 | 2% |
| Jon Ossoff (D) | -5000 | 98% | |
| Ossoff Margin of Victory | O/U 11.5% | ||
| Idaho | Jim Risch (R) | -1800 | 95% |
| David Roth (D) | +10000 | 1% | |
| Todd Achilles (I) | +900 | 4% | |
| Risch Margin of Victory | O/U 18.5% | ||
| Illinois | Don Tracy (R) | +4000 | 1% |
| Juliana Stratton (D) | -20000 | 99% | |
| Stratton Margin of Victory | O/U 22.5% | ||
| Iowa | Ashley Hinson (R) | -145 | 59% |
| Josh Turek (D) | +115 | 41% | |
| Kansas | Roger Marshall (R) | -115 | 50% |
| Adam Hamilton (D) | -115 | 50% | |
| Kentucky | Andy Barr (R) | -4000 | 98% |
| Charles Booker (D) | +1500 | 2% | |
| Barr Margin of Victory | O/U 20.5% | ||
| Louisiana | Julia Letlow (R) | -1600 | 94% |
| Jamie Davis (D) | +800 | 6% | |
| Maine | Susan Collins (R) | +135 | 38% |
| Troy Jackson (D) | -165 | 62% | |
| Massachusetts | John Deaton (R) | +2000 | 1% |
| Ed Markey (D) | -10000 | 99% | |
| Markey Margin of Victory | O/U 32.5% | ||
| Michigan | Mike Rogers (R) | +200 | 29% |
| Abdul El-Sayed (M) | -250 | 71% | |
| Minnesota | Michele Tafoya (R) | +600 | 9% |
| Peggy Flanagan (D) | -1000 | 91% | |
| Flanagan Margin of Victory | O/U 8.5% | ||
| Mississippi | Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) | -1200 | 92% |
| Scott Colom (D) | +650 | 8% | |
| Hyde-Smith Margin of Victory | O/U 7.5% | ||
| Montana | Kurt Alme (R) | -2000 | 95% |
| Alani Bankhead (D) | +5000 | 1% | |
| Seth Bodnar (I) | +1000 | 4% | |
| Nebraska | Pete Ricketts (R) | -250 | 71% |
| Dan Osborn (I) | +200 | 29% | |
| New Hampshire | John Sununu (R) | +700 | 7% |
| Chris Pappas (D) | -1400 | 93% | |
| Pappas Margin of Victory | O/U 8.5% | ||
| New Jersey | Justin Murphy (R) | +1800 | 1% |
| Cory Booker (D) | -7500 | 99% | |
| Booker Margin of Victory | O/U 24.5% | ||
| New Mexico | Larry Marker (R) | +2000 | 1% |
| Ben Ray Lujan (D) | -10000 | 99% | |
| Lujan Margin of Victory | O/U 20.5% | ||
| North Carolina | Michael Whatley (R) | +2000 | 1% |
| Roy Cooper (D) | -10000 | 99% | |
| Cooper Margin of Victory | O/U 14.5% | ||
| Ohio (Special) | Jon Husted (R) | +185 | 31% |
| Sherrod Brown (D) | -225 | 69% | |
| Oklahoma | Kevin Hern (R) | -5000 | 98% |
| N'kiyla Jasmine Thomas (D) | +1600 | 2% | |
| Hern Margin of Victory | O/U 23.5% | ||
| Oregon | David Brock Smith (R) | +1600 | 2% |
| Jeff Merkley (D) | -5000 | 98% | |
| Merkley Margin of Victory | O/U 23.5% | ||
| Rhode Island | Raymond McKay (R) | +2000 | 1% |
| Jack Reed (D) | -10000 | 99% | |
| Reed Margin of Victory | O/U 30.5% | ||
| South Carolina | Darline Graham (R) | -275 | 73% |
| Annie Andrews (D) | +215 | 27% | |
| Graham Margin of Victory | O/U 4.5% | ||
| South Dakota | Mike Rounds (R) | -2000 | 95% |
| Brian Bengs (I) | +1000 | 5% | |
| Rounds Margin of Victory | O/U 14.5% | ||
| Tennessee | Bill Hagerty (R) | -10000 | 99% |
| Marquita Bradshaw (D) | +2000 | 1% | |
| Hagerty Margin of Victory | O/U 21.5% | ||
| Texas | Ken Paxton (R) | +180 | 31% |
| James Talarico (D) | -220 | 69% | |
| Virginia | Bert Mizusawa (R) | +2000 | 1% |
| Mark Warner (D) | -10000 | 99% | |
| Warner Margin of Victory | O/U 21.5% | ||
| West Virginia | Shelley Moore Capito (R) | -10000 | 99% |
| Rachel Fetty Anderson (D) | +2000 | 1% | |
| Capito Margin of Victory | O/U 32.5% | ||
| Wyoming | Harriet Hageman (R) | -10000 | 99% |
| James W. Byrd (D) | +2000 | 1% | |
| Hageman Margin of Victory | O/U 33.5% | 0 |
- T C Jackson, Gambling911.com
