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COLUMBUS, Ohio (Gambling911.com) - We continue to monitor the fallout from this week's controversial ad from Ohio Republican gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy featuring his opponent's elderly mother warning voters in the Buckeye State not to vote for her daughter.
Revelations quickly surfaced that Donna Arthur, Democratic candidate Amy Acton's mother, has been estranged from has been estranged from her daughter since 1978, and with good reason. Arthur’s husband, Cledith Arthur, was arrested and charged with the rape of then-12-year-old Acton. He had allegedly been raping her since the age of nine. The arrest was covered by the Youngstown Vindicator at the time. On Tuesday, Acton’s brother, Phillip Stearns, said he and Acton were removed from their mother’s custody after Cledith Arthur’s arrest. The sexual abuse only came to light after Amy's biological father contacted the authorities.
“Our birth mother stayed married to Amy’s rapist until he died,” Stearns said in a statement shared by Acton’s campaign.
Assuming the gambling sites are right - and they typically are - Acton is now a "lock" to win this race. BetOnline had her as the -700 favorite. Her odds were -205 just prior to the ad circulating earlier this week. There are now margin of victory odds available for this race with Acton winning by 7.5% or more the favorite paying out $205 for every $100 bet.
On Friday evening, the nonpartisan election forecaster Cook Report moved the governor’s race from “toss up” to “lean Democrat".
While some political pundits suggested the controversial Ramaswamy ad could spark a nationwide backlash against Republicans, particularly after President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance came to its defense, other Republican candidates in Ohio appear to have escaped any political fallout, at least for now.
Republican senate candidate Jon Husted pays out $200 for every $100 bet to win against his Democratic opponent, Sherrod Brown (-250). The odds here only shifted a quarter point in Brown's favor since the controversy erupted. Husted has condemned the ad.
| State | Candidate | Odds | Probability |
| Alabama | Barry Moore (R) | -5000 | 98% |
| Everett Weiss (D) | +1600 | 2% | |
| Moore Margin of Victory | O/U 19.5% | ||
| Alaska | Dan Sullivan (R) | +250 | 24% |
| Mary Peltola (D) | -325 | 76% | |
| Arkansas | Tom Cotton (R) | -2500 | 96% |
| Hallie Schoffner (D) | +1200 | 4% | |
| Cotton Margin of Victory | O/U 15.5% | ||
| Colorado | Mark Baisley (R) | +2000 | 1% |
| John Hickenlooper (D) | -10000 | 99% | |
| Hickenlooper Margin of Victory | O/U 22.5% | ||
| Delaware | Michael Katz (R) | +4000 | 1% |
| Chris Coons (D) | -20000 | 99% | |
| Coons Margin of Victory | O/U 28.5% | ||
| Florida (Special) | Ashley Moody (R) | -1600 | 94% |
| Angie Nixon (D) | +800 | 6% | |
| Moody Margin of Victory | O/U 7.5% | ||
| Georgia | Mike Collins (R) | +1600 | 2% |
| Jon Ossoff (D) | -5000 | 98% | |
| Ossoff Margin of Victory | O/U 9.5% | ||
| Idaho | Jim Risch (R) | -1800 | 95% |
| Todd Achilles (I) | +900 | 4% | |
| David Roth (D) | +10000 | 1% | |
| Risch Margin of Victory | O/U 18.5% | ||
| Illinois | Don Tracy (R) | +4000 | 1% |
| Juliana Stratton (D) | -20000 | 99% | |
| Stratton Margin of Victory | O/U 22.5% | ||
| Iowa | Ashley Hinson (R) | -140 | 58% |
| Josh Turek (D) | +110 | 42% | |
| Kansas | Roger Marshall (R) | -180 | 64% |
| Adam Hamilton (D) | +150 | 36% | |
| Kentucky | Andy Barr (R) | -4000 | 98% |
| Charles Booker (D) | +1500 | 2% | |
| Barr Margin of Victory | O/U 20.5% | ||
| Louisiana | Julia Letlow (R) | -4000 | 98% |
| Jamie Davis (D) | +1500 | 2% | |
| Maine | Susan Collins (R) | +145 | 36% |
| Troy Jackson (D) | -175 | 64% | |
| Massachusetts | John Deaton (R) | +2000 | 1% |
| Ed Markey (D) | -10000 | 99% | |
| Markey Margin of Victory | O/U 32.5% | ||
| Michigan | Mike Rogers (R) | +215 | 27% |
| Abdul El-Sayed (M) | -275 | 73% | |
| Minnesota | Michele Tafoya (R) | +700 | 7% |
| Peggy Flanagan (D) | -1400 | 93% | |
| Flanagan Margin of Victory | O/U 6.5% | ||
| Mississippi | Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) | -1000 | 91% |
| Scott Colom (D) | +600 | 9% | |
| Hyde-Smith Margin of Victory | O/U 7.5% | ||
| Montana | Kurt Alme (R) | -2000 | 95% |
| Seth Bodnar (I) | +1000 | 4% | |
| Alani Bankhead (D) | +5000 | 1% | |
| Nebraska | Pete Ricketts (R) | -300 | 75% |
| Dan Osborn (I) | +240 | 25% | |
| New Hampshire | John Sununu (R) | +700 | 7% |
| Chris Pappas (D) | -1400 | 93% | |
| Pappas Margin of Victory | O/U 8.5% | ||
| New Jersey | Justin Murphy (R) | +1800 | 1% |
| Cory Booker (D) | -7500 | 99% | |
| Booker Margin of Victory | O/U 24.5% | ||
| New Mexico | Larry Marker (R) | +2000 | 1% |
| Ben Ray Lujan (D) | -10000 | 99% | |
| Lujan Margin of Victory | O/U 20.5% | ||
| North Carolina | Michael Whatley (R) | +2000 | 1% |
| Roy Cooper (D) | -10000 | 99% | |
| Ohio (Special) | Jon Husted (R) | +185 | 31% |
| Sherrod Brown (D) | -225 | 69% | |
| Oklahoma | Kevin Hern (R) | -5000 | 98% |
| N'kiyla Jasmine Thomas (D) | +1600 | 2% | |
| Hern Margin of Victory | O/U 23.5% | ||
| Oregon | David Brock Smith (R) | +1600 | 2% |
| Jeff Merkley (D) | -5000 | 98% | |
| Merkley Margin of Victory | O/U 23.5% | ||
| Rhode Island | Raymond McKay (R) | +2000 | 1% |
| Jack Reed (D) | -10000 | 99% | |
| Reed Margin of Victory | O/U 30.5% | ||
| South Carolina | Darline Graham (R) | -600 | 86% |
| Annie Andrews (D) | +400 | 14% | |
| Graham Margin of Victory | O/U 4.5% | ||
| South Dakota | Mike Rounds (R) | -2000 | 95% |
| Brian Bengs (I) | +1000 | 5% | |
| Rounds Margin of Victory | O/U 10.5% | ||
| Tennessee | Bill Hagerty (R) | -10000 | 99% |
| Marquita Bradshaw (D) | +2000 | 1% | |
| Hagerty Margin of Victory | O/U 21.5% | ||
| Texas | Ken Paxton (R) | +155 | 35% |
| James Talarico (D) | -185 | 65% | |
| Virginia | Bert Mizusawa (R) | +2000 | 1% |
| Mark Warner (D) | -10000 | 99% | |
| Warner Margin of Victory | O/U 21.5% | ||
| West Virginia | Shelley Moore Capito (R) | -10000 | 99% |
| Rachel Fetty Anderson (D) | +2000 | 1% | |
| Capito Margin of Victory | O/U 32.5% | ||
| Wyoming | Harriet Hageman (R) | -10000 | 99% |
| James W. Byrd (D) | +2000 | 1% | |
| Hageman Margin of Victory | O/U 33.5% |
- T C Jackson, Gambling911.com
