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AUSTIN, Texas (Gambling911.com) - The Texas governor's race is closer than most anticipated, but the oddsmakers are not in agreement with recent polls.
Gina Hinojosa has been leading in some polls lately but her payout odds are close to $300 for every $100 bet.
Greg Abbott is the -350 favorite to be re-elected for a fourth time. Texas does not have term limits for governors.
Abbott has gained a quarter point in recent days, a nominal but favorable trend nonetheless for the GOP.
Abbott's chances are even greater at the prediction market Kalshi. 77% of traders believe he will win. He's mostly hovered between 85% and 90% over the last year.
A new ReconMR Oct. 13 poll shows Abbott has edged ahead of Hinojosa after trailing her by four points in a September ReconMR poll.
"In an unusual predicament for the three-term governor, Abbott enters the final weeks of the campaign locked in the tightest of battles with Hinojosa, leading her by a single point, 48-47%," said Lindsey Hendren, a senior research analyst at ReconMR. "The race remains much more competitive than many anticipated earlier this year, or even just a few months ago."
The ReconMR Texas Poll surveyed 617 Texas likely voters and has an overall margin of error of 4.4 percentage points.
The poll found that both candidates hold their partisan bases, with Abbott leading Republicans 92% to 5% and Hinojosa leading Democrats 94% to 2%. Hinojosa leads likely independents 57% to 34%.
- T C Jackson, Gambling911.com
