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OAKLAND PARK, Fla (Gambling911.com) - Betonline has just advised Gambling911.com of three major shifts in the Midterm election odds.
Democrats have been paying special attention to Iowa as a potential flip in the Senate.
They pegged high hopes on their candidate, Josh Turek. Most election analysts still listed Iowa as "Lean Republican".
The latest odds reflect this, however, GOP candidate Ashley Hinson is more than a "lean" at -185 odds.
That means Turek pays well - $155 for every $100 bet - should he win.
The September Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media Iowa survey finds Hinson leading Turek in the U.S. Senate election, 50% to 45%. Support for Hinson increased two points since August, while Turek’s support held at 45%.
The latest Iowa numbers are actually a fascinating example of why a national “blue wave” doesn't necessarily move every race equally.
Hinson has already won competitive congressional races, has represented a substantial chunk of eastern Iowa, was a longtime local TV news anchor before entering politics, and has relatively high familiarity with voters. She's not starting from scratch in September.
It's interesting to note that, in the race for Governor, Democrat Rob Sand leads Republican Zach Lahn 49% to 46%, while 6% are undecided.
The last time a Democrat won the Iowa governor's race was 2006, when Chet Culver defeated Republican Jim Nussle, so there is certainly precedence here and a win by Lahn might not come as that big a shot in a state that has been mostly reliably red over the last decade.
The news for Democrats is good on the Ohio governor's front as well.
Ohio Governor
Amy Acton -140
Vivek Ramaswamy +100
(Odds were even last week so bets are coming in on Acton)
But in Kansas, Republicans might be able to breathe a sigh of relief.
That state's Senate race was beginning to look more favorable for Democrats, even if it's seen as a bit of a stretch.
Kansas Senate
Roger Marshall -500
Adam Hamilton +375
(Odds were Marshall -500 last week so bets are coming in on Hamilton)
Hamilton is an American minister who is the Democratic nominee in the 2026 United States Senate election in Kansas. He is the senior pastor of the Resurrection, a United Methodist Church, a Mainline Protestant church with multiple locations in the Greater Kansas City area.
Hamilton is also raising some serious money, $4.17 million, actually slightly more than Marshall's approximately $4.01 million.
While Kansas is viewed as even more reliably red than Iowa, Kansas voters have elected Democrat Laura Kelly governor in 2018 and 2022. And Sharice Davids has repeatedly won the suburban Kansas City congressional district.
Even more telling, in August 2022, just weeks after Dobbs, Kansas voters considered the “Value Them Both” constitutional amendment. A “Yes” vote would have removed the Kansas Constitution's protection for abortion rights and allowed the Republican-controlled legislature greater authority to restrict or ban abortion.
It wasn't even close:
NO — 59.2% (557,837)
YES — 40.8% (385,014)
Hamilton's odds are not good. He pays $325 for every $100 bet to win. But those odds are actually an improvement.
Multiple private and public polls indicate that Hamilton is running a margin-of-error race against the Republican incumbent.
- T.C. Jackson, Gambling911.com
