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HOUSTON, Tex (Gambling911.com) - GOP Senate hopeful Ken Paxton sat with a 57% chance of winning the Texas race just one month ago. Fast forward to August 9 and Paxton and his Democratic opponent, James Talarico, are both given a 50% chance of winning. BetOnline currently has Talarico priced at -125 versus Paxton at -105.
The last time Texas voters elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate was 1988, when Lloyd Bentsen won re-election to his fourth full Senate term, defeating Republican Beau Boulter with about 59% of the vote.
The polls mostly show each candidate tied but recent trends show Talarico leading, though mostly within the margin of error.
A new poll from the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University shows Talarico leading Paxton 47% to 45%, a margin within the survey’s 2.8-point error range, with a Fox News poll giving Talarico a 3-point lead.
Texas Democrats' research group 254 Labs on Thursday released polling that shows Talarico with a three-point lead, 48% to 45%, over Paxton. The poll was conducted July 15–31 and surveyed 1,001 registered voters. The poll had a margin of error of +/- 3.6%.
A Texas Pulse poll, released Friday by Texas A&M Bush School and ReconMR shows similar results with Talarico leading Paxton by four points, 47% to 43%. The same poll showed the two in a dead heat in June.
ReconMR senior research analyst Lindsey Hendren said the shift towards Talarico was likely tied to independent voters choosing to support Talarico.
"The movement over the last two months is largely seen by looking at independent voters who now favor Talarico by 23 points, 53-30%, up from 14 points, 50-36%, in June," Hendren told Fox 7 Austin.
Women are now favoring Talarico by 13% over Paxton, a 4 percent change since June.
Talarico also closed the gap with male voters. In June's poll, Paxton held a 10-point lead over Talarico among male voters. That lead has fallen to just 6%.
"Talarico leads by wide margins in the Austin and Dallas/Ft. Worth regions, while Paxton has a large lead in the rural parts of the state, and the Houston and San Antonio regions are currently very closely divided," Hendren said.
- T.C. Jackson, Gambling911.com
