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U.S. President Donald Trump endorsed Ken Paxton this week for the upcoming GOP primary runoff between the Texas AG and sitting Senator John Cornyn
BetOnline had Democrat James Talarico as the -130 favorite to win against either Republican but Paxton is now a huge favorite to win the GOP primary and would enter the general election race with enough baggage to fill the entire first class cabin of an airplane
CNN senior data correspondent Harry Enten broke down why he believes Texas can break for the Democrats come November, especially in light of U.S. President Donald Trump endorsing Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton over incumbent Senator John Cornyn this week.
The GOP primary is this coming Tuesday with BetOnline now listing Paxton as a runaway -2500 favorite in light of the Trump endorsement.
Paxton comes into a potential general election carrying several major liabilities that Democrats would almost certainly hammer relentlessly. These include a long-running securities fraud case that, while ultimately resolved, continues to cast a cloud over the Attorney General, as well as a contentious divorce that brought allegations of an extramarital affair and related ethics concerns into the spotlight.
Then there's the accusations of bribery, abuse of office, and improper influence made by whistleblowers, as well as that 2023 impeachment by the Republican-controlled Texas House. The impeachment, for which Paxton was later acquitted, centered on allegations he abused his office to benefit donor and real estate developer Nate Paul.
But even before Paxton is likely the declared winner on Tuesday, based on the odds at least, Enten believes the Democrats chances are good regardless of who wins that primary.
“It’s simply put—they’re looking at the numbers. They are looking at numbers, and the idea that Democrats can’t win in Texas, I want to put that to rest. They could very well do it. James Talarico could very well win in Texas," Enten said.
Talarico is currently listed as a slight -130 favorite at BetOnline while Paxton (or any Republican) pays even odds.
Enten dug deeper.
"And I want to use a comparison point with 2018 because there was all this talk about Beto O’Rourke, right? “Oh, could he beat Ted Cruz?” He could beat Ted. The numbers at this point in that campaign simply put did not support that conclusion. But the numbers at that point absolutely support the conclusion that James Talarico can win.
"So take a look. Texas Senate polls in May of the election year. When you matched up O’Rourke, Beto O’Rourke versus Ted Cruz, Ted Cruz was up by 7 points. He was clearly ahead. But look at the polling average now when you match up Ken Paxton versus James Talarico. It’s actually Talarico that’s ahead by 4 points.
"And Johnny B, I was looking back at every single Texas Senate race that I could find, and at this point in the campaign, James Talarico is polling better than any Democrat in at least 24 years. You have to go all the way back to 2002 to find a Democrat even polling anywhere close to where Talarico is polling right now. Texas Democrats have dreamt about turning it blue. This time, the numbers actually support the idea that they may actually be able to do it."
Beto O'Rourke came close to beating sitting Texas Senator Ted Cruz in 2018. O'Rourke lost by just just 2.6 percentage points.
"If you go back? Again, just look at these differences right here, okay? Texas GOP candidate net favorability. Ted Cruz’s net favorability was actually plus seven points in my average. Look what Ken Paxton is. The complete inverse of that—he’s seven points underwater. So look again. You just look at the numbers. In 2018, Democrats had this dream of turning Texas blue. The numbers didn’t support it in large part because Ted Cruz is actually decently popular. But Ken Paxton is anything but. In poll after poll after poll, he is underwater. No wonder Republican senators are running scared, especially after that Trump endorsement of Paxton yesterday."
- T.C. Jackson, Gambling911.com
