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U.S. President Donald Trump endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is now the -2500 favorite to win the GOP primary over incumbent Senator John Cornyn as a result
Democrat James Talarico is a -130 favorite to win the Senate race in the general election
Attorney General Ken Paxon is a -2500 favorite to win the Texas Republican Senate primary over incumbent Senator John Cornyn after U.S. President Donald Trump endorsed Paxton.
Trump’s endorsement is the latest of several he has handed out in Republican primaries in an attempt to cull the GOP of those who’ve opposed him. Most notably, Trump-endorsed candidates defeated Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and Indiana state senators who opposed him in redistricting. Cassidy was one of seven Republican senators who voted to find Trump guilty of "incitement of insurrection" regarding the January 6, 2021 Capitol attack.
Cornyn is viewed as a strong traditional Republican general-election candidate compared to Paxton. Some Republican strategists reportedly argued that Cornyn would still be more electable than Paxton in a November race, especially because Paxton carries legal and ethics baggage.
Democrat James Talarico was now the -130 favorite to win the Senate race in the state of Texas. No Democrat has been elected as Senator in the Lone Star State since Lloyd Bentsen won re-election in 1988.
“Ken is a true MAGA Warrior who has ALWAYS delivered for Texas, and will continue to do so in the United States Senate,” Trump wrote on social media.
News of the endorsement broke during a Paxton campaign event, drawing cheers from supporters who began dancing to “YMCA,” a Trump campaign anthem.
“I have so much respect for the president and appreciate so much his endorsement,” Paxton said at the event in Allen, Texas.
Paxton and Cornyn advanced to a May 26 runoff after finishing as the top vote-getters in a March 3 primary in which no candidate won a majority. Early voting started Monday and continues through Friday.
Seismic Shift in Texas Senate Odds at BetOnline
Tuesday's news has created a massive ripple in the runoff odds.
Paxton, who started as a small favorite to be the nominee way back in November 2025 and climbed as high as -700 (Feb. 26). He then lost the lead, regained it to the odds of -200 on Tuesday, is now again a massive favorite following the Trump endorsement.
Here are the latest numbers from BetOnline:
Texas Senate Runoff Election
Ken Paxton -2500
John Cornyn +1000
(NOTE: Odds equate to an 96.2% implied probability Paxton will win)
For the Senate election, Talarico found himself a small favorite to take the seat back on March 4, but had shifted back to a slight underdog by mid-April.
On Tuesday, we’ve seen the favorites flip as “Uncle Rico” is now back in the driver’s seat.
2026 U.S. Senate Odds (Texas)
James Talarico -130
Cornyn/Paxton +100
(NOTE: Odds equate to an 56.5% implied probability Talarico will win)
- T.C. Jackson, Gambling911.com
