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Despite some promising confirmations from both Iran's foreign minister and the U.S. President that the Strait of Hormuz is now open to traffic, traders aren't buying the notion that shipping traffic will return to normal by month's end.
In a social media post, U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran announced that the strait “is fully open and ready for full passage.”
Minutes earlier, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted on X that the passage for all commercial vessels through the strait “is declared completely open” in line with the ceasefire in Lebanon. He said it would stay open for the remaining period of the ceasefire.
Traders at the prediction market Polymarket were giving the Strait of Hormuz a 42% of returning to normal by the end of April. That is hardly reassuring.
So what exactly is normal and how will these trades be graded?
Polymarket's resolution to this market is as follows:
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for April 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
- T.C. Jackson, Gambling911.com
